Keep your eye on commodity prices. The Commodity Research Bureau's futures index has plunged to a six-year low. But the CRB's spot industrial-price index is up about 8% since January and has held its own in recent weeks. Indeed, the sensitive materials-prices component of the index of leading indicators has risen for four straight months. As long as spot prices resist the downward pull of futures prices, observers believe the economy is likely to eke out continued growth. But if they weaken significantly, the chances of a triple dip will escalate."
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