A dollar gauge, which has climbed to a seven-month high, may rally further based on technical patterns, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The 50- and 200-day moving averages for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency versus 10 major counterparts, were the closest to converging since they crossed in March. With the 50-day average poised to surpass the 200-day measure, known as the golden cross, the event may be bullish for the U.S. currency, said Niall O’Connor, a technical analyst at JPMorgan in New York.
“People will look at that as a potential positive, particularly given that the slopes of both averages are pointing higher,” O’Connor said in a phone interview. “When two moving averages cross, it’s usually a positive.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.4 percent to 1,034.41 at 10:13 a.m. in New York. It reached the highest since Jan. 23.
The gauge touched 1,037.75 on Jan. 21, which is the high for 2014 and the highest level since September 2013, when it reached 1,038.91.
“You are coming into some very significant levels of resistance for the Bloomberg Dollar Index at the high we saw back in January,” O’Connor said. “That’s just before the 1,039 level from September. That may be an area where the Bloomberg Dollar Index could pause. The upside risks are intact and the moving average signal does seem to confirm it.”
A Labor Department report on Sept. 5 will show payrolls rose by more than 200,000 in August for a seventh-straight month, according to a Bloomberg survey of 80 economists.
The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting on Sept. 4. It will embark on purchasing bonds under the quantitative-easing stimulus strategy this year or next, according to 44 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey last month.
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