Indian Rupee Volatility at Three-Week Low on Inflows, Outlook

Volatility in India’s rupee fell to a three-week low as foreign investors bought local assets amid optimism growth in Asia’s third-largest economy is reviving.

Overseas funds were net buyers of $3.15 billion of Indian stocks and bonds last week, latest exchange data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s taken their total investment in 2014 to $29.4 billion. The $1.9 trillion economy probably grew 5.6 percent in the three months through June, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due Aug. 29. That follows a 4.6 percent expansion in the previous quarter.

One-month implied volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell for a fourth day, dropping by one basis points, or 0.01 percentage point, to 6.78 percent in Mumbai. It touched 6.73 percent, the lowest since Aug. 6. The rupee rose 0.2 percent to 60.4350 per dollar, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The rupee has been pretty stable as investors aren’t seeing any signs of a blow-out at the moment,” Anindya Banerjee, a currency analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. in Mumbai, said by phone. “We believe global markets will be the major trigger for the currency in the near term.”

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted in her Jackson Hole address on Aug. 22 that the timeline for interest-rate increases could be brought forward, with U.S. policy makers already reducing asset purchases that have buoyed emerging markets. The presidents of Russia and Ukraine are set to meet today amid Russian plans to send a second convoy of aid trucks after the first sparked accusations of an invasion.

Three-month offshore non-deliverable forwards rose 0.1 percent to 61.38 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shikhar Balwani in Mumbai at sbalwani@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net Arijit Ghosh

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