U.S. Has 26% Chance of Knocking Out Belgium in World Cup Match

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg’s Eric Chemi crunches the numbers and predicts a 38% chance for the USA soccer team to advance to the quarterfinals at this years World Cup in Brazil. Chemi speaks on “In The Loop.”

The U.S. has a 26 percent chance to advance past Belgium to the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002, according to Bloomberg Sports projections.

The U.S. finished second in Group G with a 1-0 loss two days ago to pool winner Germany that followed a win over Ghana and a draw with Portugal. Belgium topped Group H after wins over Algeria, Russia and South Korea. The U.S.-Belgium game July 1 in Salvador, Brazil, will be the final round-of-16 match.

“They’re another top team with a lot of quality players,” U.S. captain Clint Dempsey told reporters. “In the knockout stage, anybody can go through if you bring it on that day. We’ll do everything that we can and make sure that we put in the work that we need to and hopefully play to the best of our ability, and if we do that, I think we’ll get a result.”

The Bloomberg Sports projections are based on criteria such as group stage results, players’ scoring and defensive abilities, injuries, squad selections and managers.

Brazil has the best odds to extend its World Cup championship record to six, with a 24.4 percent chance, according to Bloomberg Sports. The tournament host takes on Chile today to open round-of-16 play and Brazil has a 79.7 percent chance to succeed.

Bookmakers’ Odds

The U.S. entered the monthlong tournament with 200-1 odds to win it for the first time, according to Las Vegas-based betting information website Pregame.com. Those odds have narrowed to 90-1, the 14th-longest of the 16 remaining teams.

Brazil is the favorite at 3-1, meaning a successful $100 bet would net $300. Germany and Argentina are next at 4-1, followed by the Netherlands at 7-1, France at 8-1 and Colombia and Belgium at 20-1.

The U.S., which would take on Argentina or Switzerland if it gets past Belgium, has a 0.6 percent chance of winning the tournament.

The best finish for the U.S. was in the first World Cup in 1930, when it reached the semifinals.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at mlevinson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Sillup at msillup@bloomberg.net Dex McLuskey, Rob Gloster

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