October Most Likely Month for Extra BOJ Easing: Survey

Thirty-three percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus at the meeting on Oct. 31. Nine percent of respondents see more easing in July, down from 38 percent in a survey last month.   Following are the results of the most recent survey, conducted June 3-6.

1) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                33    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
June                            0       -
July                            3      9%
Aug.                            0      0%
Sept.                           1      3%
Oct. 7                          3      9%
Oct. 31                        11     33%
Nov.                            1      3%
Dec.                            0       -
Jan. 2015                       1      3%
Feb. 2015                       1      3%
March 2015                      0       -
April 2015 or later             4     12%
Don’t expect                    8     24%
===============================================================

2) How would the BOJ ease more next time? 
===============================================================
Response Count:           
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. Expand monetary base        18
B. Expand JGBs                 19
C. Expand ETFs                 22
D. Expand J-REITs              12
E. Cut excess reserve rate      6
F. Others                       7
===============================================================

3) When will the BOJ start tapering?
===============================================================
Response Count:                33
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. 1H 2014                      0
B. 2H 2014                      0
C. 1H 2015                      0
D. 2H 2015                      0
E. 1H 2016                      4
F. 2H 2016                      3
G. 1H 2017                      4
H. 2H 2017                      1
I. After 2018                   6
J. Unforeseeable               15
===============================================================

4) The Bank of Japan has said that Core CPI (inflation excluding
fresh food, and also excluding the effects of the sales tax
rises) is likely to reach around 2% y/y -- the price stability
target --  around the middle of the projection period through
fiscal 2016. Do you think this forecast is achievable? 
===============================================================
2% Inflation                  Yes      No
---------------------------------------------------------------
Reach target                    3      30
===============================================================

5) When must core inflation reach 2% for the BOJ to achieve the goal of 
2% inflation with a time horizon of about 2 years?
Response Count:               32 
---------------------------------------------------------------
                    Apr-15     6 
                    Jun-15     4 
                    Sep-15    12 
                    Dec-15     4 
                    Mar-16     3 
                     Other     3 
===============================================================

6) Do you think the BOJ should increase stimulus if inflation fails to reach 
2% by that deadline in order to maintain its credibility? 
                              Yes      No
                               18     14 
===============================================================

7) Do you think the government’s growth strategy will succeed in paving the 
way for the economy to achieve that goal of 2% real growth on average 
over next 10 years?       
                              Yes      No
                                3     28 
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To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Isaac Aquino in Tokyo at iaquino1@bloomberg.net James Mayger in Tokyo at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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