Economists Rank Brazil First, Germany Second in World Cup

Brazil will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup, according to 171 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, May 29 to June 6. Fifty-seven percent of economists placed Brazil in first place when asked to rank their top four teams. Seven percent of economists expect Spain, the 2010 World Cup champion, to win. Brazil is placed third in FIFA’s rankings, published on June 5, behind Spain and Germany. The tournaments host nation will also score the most goals, according to 44 percent of economists, topping Argentina and Spain.

Goldman Sachs, Danske Bank, and Unicredit all crunched data to predict Brazil will beat Argentina in next month’s final, and U.K. bookmaker Paddy Power Plc (PWL) rates Brazil the 3-1 favorite, with Argentina close behind as a 4-1 favorite. A data driven model created by Bloomberg Sports sees Brazil beating Spain in the final. The World Cup begins on June 12 with Brazil playing Croatia in the opening match, and ends July 13 with a final taking place at the Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

Survey results on following page.
================================================================================
                       Total   Total   Total   Total   Weighted  Weighted   FIFA         
Country                1st     2nd     3rd     4th     Points    Rank       Rank         
================================================================================
                       ------------------------ Values -------------------------
Brazil (5)             98      27      30      8       1270.5    1          3            
Germany (3)            29      34      65      22      763       2          2            
Argentina (2)          26      40      13      41      641       3          5            
Spain (1)              12      49      33      27      614.5     4          1            
Portugal               3       5       6       7       94.5      5          4            
Uruguay (2)            1       6       4       7       74        6          7            
Italy (4)              2       4       2       19      73        7          9            
Belgium                0       2       4       16      47        8          11           
Netherlands            0       2       3       8       27        9          15           
Colombia               0       1       1       2       13.5      10         8            
France (1)             0       0       2       5       13        11         17           
United States          0       1       0       1       8.5       12         13           
England (1)            0       0       2       2       7         13         10           
Chile                  0       0       1       0       4         14         14           
Mexico                 0       0       1       0       4         14         20           
Russia                 0       0       1       0       4         14         19           
================================================================================
                       Total   Total   Total   Total   Weighted  Weighted   FIFA         
Country                1st     2nd     3rd     4th     Points    Rank       Rank         
================================================================================
Cote d’Ivoire          0       0       1       0       4         14         23           
Bosnia                 0       0       0       1       1         15         21           
Croatia                0       0       0       1       1         15         18           
Ghana                  0       0       0       1       1         15         37           
Japan                  0       0       0       1       1         15         46           
                       --------------- As % of Total Respondents ---------------
Brazil (5)             57%     16%     18%     5%      1270.5    1          3            
Germany (3)            17%     20%     38%     13%     763       2          2            
Argentina (2)          15%     23%     8%      24%     641       3          5            
Spain (1)              7%      29%     20%     16%     614.5     4          1            
Portugal               2%      3%      4%      4%      94.5      5          4            
Uruguay (2)            1%      4%      2%      4%      74        6          7            
Italy (4)              1%      2%      1%      11%     73        7          9            
Belgium                0%      1%      2%      9%      47        8          11           
Netherlands            0%      1%      2%      5%      27        9          15           
Colombia               0%      1%      1%      1%      13.5      10         8            
France (1)             0%      0%      1%      3%      13        11         17           
================================================================================
                       Total   Total   Total   Total   Weighted  Weighted   FIFA         
Country                1st     2nd     3rd     4th     Points    Rank       Rank         
================================================================================
United States          0%      1%      0%      1%      8.5       12         13           
England (1)            0%      0%      1%      1%      7         13         10           
Chile                  0%      0%      1%      0%      4         14         14           
Mexico                 0%      0%      1%      0%      4         14         20           
Russia                 0%      0%      1%      0%      4         14         19           
Cote d’Ivoire          0%      0%      1%      0%      4         14         23           
Bosnia                 0%      0%      0%      1%      1         15         21           
Croatia                0%      0%      0%      1%      1         15         18           
Ghana                  0%      0%      0%      1%      1         15         37           
Japan                  0%      0%      0%      1%      1         15         46           
================================================================================
Most Goals Scored              # of economists
================================================================================
Brazil                         72      
Argentina                      44      
Spain                          18      
Germany                        16      
Netherlands                    4       
Uruguay                        4       
Portugal                       3       
Italy                          1       
================================================================================

NOTE: Weighted points were calculated by assigning 10 points to the first place choice, 7.5 points to the second place choice, 4 points to the third place choice, and 1 point to the fourth place choice. NOTE: Number in parentheses indicate number of previous World Cup victories NOTE: The survey contains responses from 171 economists in 139 firms across 52 countries

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Robinson in London at jrobinson37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Marco Babic at mbabic@bloomberg.net Joshua Robinson

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