July Most Likely Month for Extra BOJ Easing: Survey

(Corrects GDP and CPI forecasts in story published May 8th.)

Thirty-eight percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus in July, down from 43 percent in a survey last month.   Following are the results of the most recent survey, conducted May 2 to 8.

1) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                32    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. May                          0       -
B. June                         2      6%
C. July                        12     38%
D. Aug.                         0       -
E. Sept.                        1      3%
F. Oct. 7                       1      3%
G. Oct. 31                      8     25%
H. Nov.                         0       -
I. Dec.                         0       -
J. Jan. 2015                    1      3%
K. Feb 2015                     0       -
L. Mar. 2015                    0       -
M. Apr. 2015 or later           2      6%
N. Don’t expect                 5     16%

===============================================================

2) How would the BOJ ease more next time? 
===============================================================
Response Count:           
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. Expand monetary base        20
B. Expand JGBs                 21
C. Expand ETFs                 26
D. Expand J-REITs              14
E. Cut excess reserve rate      1
F. Others                       8
===============================================================

3) When will the BOJ start tapering?
===============================================================
Response Count:                28
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. 1H 2014                      0
B. 2H 2014                      0
C. 1H 2015                      0
D. 2H 2015                      0
E. 1H 2016                      3
F. 2H 2016                      3
G. 1H 2017                      3
H. 2H 2017                      0
I. After 2018                   7
J. Unforeseeable               12
===============================================================

4) The Bank of Japan has said that Core CPI (inflation excluding
fresh food, and also excluding the effects of the sales tax
rises) is likely to reach around 2% y/y -- the price stability
target --  the price stability target -- around the middle of the projection period 
through fiscal 2016. Do you think this forecast is achievable? 
===============================================================
2% Inflation                  Yes      No
---------------------------------------------------------------
Reach target                    2      29
===============================================================

5) What are your forecasts for these items? 

================================================================
Median Forecast           FY13   FY14    FY15    FY16   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Real GDP growth rate      2.2    0.8     1.2     1      
Core CPI (minus sales tax)0.8    1       1.1     1.2    
================================================================

To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Minh Bui in Hong Kong at mbui@bloomberg.net James Mayger in Tokyo at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net James Mayger

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