The Ibovespa rose the most among the world’s major equity gauges on speculation that a poll expected to be released this weekend will show voter support for President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election is continuing to erode.
State-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) contributed the most to the index’s advance. Anhanguera Educacional Participacoes SA (AEDU3) capped its biggest weekly gain in two years. Iron-ore producer Vale SA (VALE5) followed metals higher.
The Ibovespa gained 2.6 percent to 52,980.31 at the close of trading in Sao Paulo, the most among 93 indexes tracked by Bloomberg. The gauge rose 3.1 percent this week. Sensus Data World Pesquisa e Consultoria S/C Ltda. may release a poll on the general elections tomorrow, according to a statement on the website of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.
“There are rumors about the Sensus poll, which could show Rousseff losing her advantage over other candidates, and that’s what seems to be driving equities higher today,” Fausto Gouveia, who helps manage 500 million reais at Legan Administracao de Recursos in Sao Paulo, said by phone.
Support for Rousseff fell to 37 percent from 44 percent in February in an April 20-25 survey that pitted her against Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos, according to an MDA poll commissioned by the National Transport Confederation. The survey has a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.
Petrobras, as Petroleo Brasileiro is known, gained 6.2 percent to 17.60 reais. Vale climbed 3.5 percent to 27.35 reais. The Bloomberg Base Metals 3-Month Price Commodity Index added 0.8 percent. Anhanguera rose 6.2 percent to 14.65 reais.
The Ibovespa has increased 18 percent since this year’s low on March 14 as state-owned companies including the power utility Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA (ELET6) rebounded amid speculation that Rousseff may lose the election and a new president could reduce the intervention in companies that the federal government controls.
Banks and consumer stocks may also benefit from changes in economic policy if they succeed in shoring up growth, according to Raphael Figueredo, an analyst at Clear Corretora.
“Less intervention would be a positive not just for state-owned companies but for the economy in general,” Figueredo said by phone from Sao Paulo. “So consumer stocks and banks end up reacting well to these rumors about the elections.”
State-run lender Banco do Brasil SA added 1.9 percent to 23.85 reais. Itau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB4), Latin America’s biggest bank by market value, advanced 1.8 percent to 37.45 reais, the highest since November 2010.
Trading volume of stocks in Sao Paulo today was 10.1 billion reais, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a daily average of 6.71 billion reais this year, according to data from the exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ney Hayashi in Sao Paulo at firstname.lastname@example.org