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Yellen Testimony, ECB, Bank of England: Week Ahead May 5-10

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies this week to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on monetary policy and the U.S. economic outlook.

U.S. data will probably show service industries expanded in April and the trade deficit narrowed in March.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England will make interest-rate decisions, while China releases trade data for April. South Africa holds a general election.

Companies releasing earnings include Alstom SA, ArcelorMittal (MT), Barclays Plc (BARC), American International Group Inc. (AIG), Munich Re, Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Siemens AG, Telefonica SA (TEF), UBS AG (UBSN), Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA)

MONDAY, MAY 5

-U.S. service industries probably expanded in April, showing the biggest part of the economy was strengthening after a first-quarter slowdown, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Institute for Supply Management reports at 10:00 in Washington.

-U.S. tax breaks. The House of Representatives will probably vote this week on legislation to revive a business tax break that expired last year by offering companies a permanent credit based on research expenses. Companies such as Intel Corp. and General Motors Co. are part of a coalition lobbying for the law.

-Sohn Investment Conference in partnership with Bloomberg Link. The morning’s Next Wave program features emerging investors including Ethan Devine, partner at Indus Capital Partners LLC, and Jason Karp, chief executive officer at Tourbillon Capital Partners LP. Starts 09:30. The afternoon program includes Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management LP; David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital Inc.; Paul Tudor Jones, co-chairman of Tudor Investment Corp.; and Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital LP. Starts at 12:00 at the Avery Fisher Hall, Lincoln Center, New York.

-Philip Falcone’s LightSquared Inc. offers closing arguments during a two-day court hearing to confirm its bankruptcy-exit plan. Dish Network Chairman Charlie Ergen will argue that the plan can’t go ahead because it would put his $1 billion investment in LightSquared debt at the back of the repayment line. 10:00 U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Manhattan.

-The Global Mobile Internet Conference will focus on mobile Internet as the first access point for new technology consumers. CEOs speaking include Pony Ma of Tencent Holdings Ltd., Charles Chao of Sina Corp. and Lei Jun of Xiaomi Corp. Through 05/06.

-The European Commission publishes its spring economic forecasts for the 28-nation European Union. 11:00 CET in Brussels (05:00 EDT).

-Euro-area finance ministers convene to discuss the completion of Portugal’s bailout program, Greece’s economy and the possible direct recapitalization of banks by the European Stability Mechanism. 15:00 CET in Brussels (09:00 EDT).

-ECB executive board member Yves Mersch speaks in Luxembourg at a conference. 18:00 CET (12:00 EDT).

-Italy’s Istat gives briefing on outlook for the Italian economy, along with new forecasts, at 09:30 CET (03:30 EDT).

-Portuguese Economy Minister Antonio Pires de Lima speaks at a lunch debate on the recovery in Portugal. 12:30 local time (07:30 EDT).

-Israeli markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. Supreme Court. Click here for schedule.

-ECONOMY: Taiwan inflation (April), Indonesia GDP (IDGDPY) (first quarter), Turkey CPI (TUCPIY) (April), South Africa unemployment (first quarter), South Africa manufacturing PMI (April).

-EARNINGS: American International Group Inc., Pfizer Inc., Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC), Mapfre SA. (MAP)

TUESDAY, MAY 6

-The U.S. trade deficit probably narrowed in March, according to a Bloomberg survey, after widening in the previous two months. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Sotheby’s annual meeting. Dan Loeb and his hedge-fund firm Third Point LLC argue that Sotheby’s needs fresh leadership and will ask investors to vote for three board candidates, including himself. Loeb on April 29 asked a Delaware judge to delay the annual meeting so that a court can hear a full review of Sotheby’s anti-takeover measures. The judge hasn’t issued a decision. 11:00 in New York.

-North Carolina U.S. Senate primary. Eight Republicans are seeking to unseat Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in a state President Barack Obama lost in the 2012 election, and which is key to this year’s contest for Senate control. State House Speaker Thom Tillis leads in polls and is backed by U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Tillis needs 40 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. Polls close at 07:30. Ohio and Indiana also hold Congressional primaries today.

-European Union finance ministers meet to discuss a proposed financial-transaction tax. 08:30 CET in Brussels (02:30 EDT).

-The Denver Gold Group holds its European gold forum in Zurich. Philip Newman, a director of Metals Focus in London, will comment on gold and silver demand trends. 08:15 CET (02:15 EDT).

-The Bank of Portugal releases its annual accounts. Timing to be determined.

-Israeli markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

-ECONOMY: Philippines inflation, U.K. services PMI (April), U.K. composite PMI (April), Germany services, composite PMI (April, final), Ukraine CPI (UACPTYOY) (April).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Australia rate decision, Romania rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Walt Disney Co., Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM), Groupon Inc. (GRPN), UBS AG, Barclays Plc, Scor SE (SCR), Natixis SA (KN), Lafarge SA (LG), Fresenius Medical Care AG, Fresenius SE & Co KGaA, Evonik Industries AG, Linde AG, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Solvay SA (SOLB), Adidas AG, Continental AG, Snam SpA (SRG), Finmeccanica SpA (FNC), Fiat SpA (F), Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE), Gas Natural SDG SA (GAS), Liberty Global Plc (LBTYA), Grifols SA (GRF), HTC Corp. (2498)

WEDNESDAY, MAY 7

-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department on April 30 released data showing that economic growth stalled to a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as exports dropped. 10:00 in Washington.

-South Africa general election. The African National Congress, led by President Jacob Zuma, is predicted to win about 60 percent of the vote, giving him a second term. The Democratic Alliance led by Helen Zille is expected to maintain its position as the official opposition.

-The Bank of Japan releases the minutes from its April 7-8 meeting. Timing to be determined.

-The Singapore Iron Ore Forum takes place in the city state, organized by the Singapore Exchange and Custeel.com. Delegates include Michiel Hovers, vice president of marketing at BHP Billiton Ltd., Piet-Hein Ingen Housz, global head of metals at ABN Amro Bank NV, and Mark Lyons, who runs iron ore and steel trading at Citigroup Inc. 09:00 in Singapore (05/06 21:00 EST). Through 05/08.

-The Argus Middle East Crude 2014 conference takes place in Abu Dhabi. Oil buyers, sellers and senior officials from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., Kuwait Petroleum Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Reliance Industries Ltd. are among those due to speak. 09:00 in Abu Dhabi (01:00 EDT).

-Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari speaks at Chatham House in London. Timing to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. consumer credit (March), Brazil industrial production (March), China HSBC Services PMI (EC11SERP) (April), U.K. new car registrations (April), Swiss unemployment rate (April), Swiss FX reserves (April), German factory orders (March).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Czech rate decision, Polish rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Tesla Motors Inc., Moelis & Co. (MC), Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), Banco do Brasil SA, Gerdau SA, Societe General SA (GLE), ING Groep NV (INGA), Credit Agricole SA (ACA), Hannover Re, Sampo Oyj (SAMAS), Storebrand ASA (STB), HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Commerzbank AG, Swiss Re AG (SREN), Siemens AG, Carlsberg A/S (CARLB), Telenor ASA (TEL), Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI), Alstom SA (ALO), Hugo Boss AG, Swisscom AG (SCMN), Endesa SA (ELE), Legrand SA (LR), J Sainsbury Plc (SBRY), Henkel AG & Co. KGaA, Coloplast A/S (COLOB), HeidelbergCement AG, Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (IMT), Enel Green Power SpA (EGPW), Nintendo Co. (7974), SoftBank Corp. (9984)

THURSDAY, MAY 8

-Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, the Fed board member who has overseen the post-crisis overhaul of U.S. bank regulation, delivers the keynote address to a Chicago Fed conference on bank structure and competition. 08:30 in Chicago (09:30 EDT).

-ECB rate decision. The European Central Bank has left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25 percent since November. 13:45 CET in Brussels (07:45 EDT). ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 14:30 CET.

-Bank of England rate decision. The BOE is forecast to leave its key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent and maintain the stock of purchased assets at 375 billion pounds ($634 billion). 12:00 in London (07:00 EDT).

-China trade data for April. Exports and imports fell in March as Premier Li Keqiang tried to stabilize an economy heading for its slowest growth since the global financial crisis. 10:00 in Beijing (05/07 22:00 EDT).

-Barclays Plc CEO Antony Jenkins will give details of his plan to overhaul the investment bank at the lender’s group strategy update. Conference call at 10:00 in London (05:00 EDT).

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble attend a conference on the future of Europe. The event starts at 10:00 CET in Berlin (04:00 EDT).

-The Food & Agriculture Organization publishes its food-price index for April. Prices climbed for a second month in March to the highest level since May 2013. Cereals supply and demand will also be published. 10:00 CET in Rome (04:00 EDT).

-Swiss National Bank Vice President Jean-Pierre Danthine speaks on the future of banknotes. 18:30 CET in Lausanne (12:30 EDT).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-Mexico’s annual inflation rate probably slowed again in April after decelerating in March to 3.76 percent, within the central bank’s 2 percent to 4 percent target range. 08:00 in Mexico City (9:00 EDT).

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly) U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Australia unemployment (April), U.K. RICS house-price balance (April), Swiss Seco consumer confidence (April), Swiss CPI (SZCPIYOY) (April), Turkey industrial production (March), Egypt CPI (EGCPYOY) (April), South Africa manufacturing production (March).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Malaysia rate decision, Philippines rate decision, Norway rate decision, Serbia rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN), News Corp. (NWSA), CBS Corp. (CBS), YPF SA, Deutsche Telekom AG, BT Group Plc (BT/A), DNB ASA (DNB), Mediobanca SpA (MB), Munich Re, Metro AG, Beiersdorf AG, Repsol SA (REP), Enel SpA (ENEL), Adecco SA (ADEN), Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), Toshiba Corp. (6502), Rakuten Inc. (4755), Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA)

-NFL draft. The Houston Texans have first pick. Johnny Manziel, the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy, is one of the top quarterback prospects, according to Scouts Inc. 20:00, Radio City Music Hall, New York City. Through 05/10.

-PGA tour. The Players Championship, the marquee event on the U.S. golf tour with a $10 million purse, begins at the TPC Sawgrass course, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Tee times to be determined.

FRIDAY, MAY 9

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande begin a two-day meeting in Stralsund in Merkel’s electoral district on the Baltic Sea. Topics under discussion will include the Ukraine crisis and a possible counterbid from Siemens AG for Alstom SA’s energy business following General Electric Co.’s offer.

-Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi gives the keynote speech at the European University Institute’s State of the Union conference in Florence at 12:00 CET (06:00 EDT). European Commission President Jose Barroso and billionaire George Soros will also make speeches.

-China consumer-price index for April. Inflation accelerated in March as the decline in factory-gate prices deepened. 09:30 in Beijing (05/08 21:30 EDT).

-U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s conference on Bank Structure & Competition. 11:50 in Chicago (12:50 EDT).

-U.S. crop report. The Department of Agriculture releases its monthly report on supply and demand for crops. Last month, the agency cut its outlook for domestic corn and soybean inventories. 12:00 in in Washington.

-Brazil’s annual inflation rate probably rose in April from 6.15 percent in March, which is above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range. 09:00 in Rio de Janeiro (8:00 EDT).

-Argentina fourth-quarter GDP. The government will release data along with historical figures based on a new methodology. Economists forecast the economy grew 2.7% during the fourth quarter. 16:00 in Buenos Aires. (15:00 EDT).

-ECONOMY: JOLTs U.S. job openings (March), U.S. wholesale inventories (March), Canada jobs report (April), U.K. industrial production (March), U.K. manufacturing production (March), U.K. trade Balance (UKTBTTBA) (March), U.K. Niesr GDP estimate (April), German trade balance, exports (March), Italian industrial production (March).

-CENTRAL BANKS: RBA statement on monetary policy, South Korea rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Telefonica SA, ArcelorMittal, Suzuki Motor Corp. (7269), Sapporo Holdings Ltd. (2501)

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Democratic Republic of Congo (Moody’s), Georgia (Fitch), Lithuania (Moody’s), Kazakhstan (Fitch), Kenya (S&P), Malta (Moody’s), Macedonia (S&P), Portugal (Moody’s), Switzerland (Fitch).

SATURDAY, MAY 10

-The People’s Bank of China announces lending and money supply data for April. In March, aggregate financing fell 19 percent from a year earlier and money supply grew at the slowest pace on record, underscoring the risk of a deeper slowdown as the government tries to curb financial dangers. Timing and date to be confirmed.

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Jim McDonald in Tokyo at jmcdonald8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nancy Moran at nmoran@bloomberg.net; Andy Davidson at adavidson@bloomberg.net Andy Davidson

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