BOJ Extra Easing Most Likely in July: Survey

Forty-four percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus in July.   Following are the results of the most recent survey, conducted March 28 to April 3.

1) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                36    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. April 30                     4     11%
B. May                          1      3%
C. June                         5     14%
D. July                        16     44%
E. August                       0      0%
F. September                    1      3%
G. October 7                    3      8%
H. October 31                   2      6%
I. November                     0      0%
===============================================================
Response Count:                36    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
J. December                     0      0%
K. January 2015                 0      0%
L. February 2015                0      0%
M. March 2015                   0      0%
N. April 2015                   0      0%
O. Don’t expect                 4     11%
===============================================================

2) How would the BOJ ease more next time? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                36    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. Expand monetary base        24     67%
B. Expand JGBs                 25     69%
C. Expand ETFs                 26     72%
D. Expand J-REITs              14     39%
E. Cut excess reserve rate      1      3%
F. Others                       5     14%
===============================================================

3) When will the BOJ start tapering?
===============================================================
Response Count:                35     97%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. 1H 2014                      0      0%
B. 2H 2014                      0      0%
C. 1H 2015                      1      3%
D. 2H 2015                      1      3%
E. 1H 2016                      5     14%
F. 2H 2016                      2      6%
G. 1H 2017                      2      6%
H. 2H 2017                      1      3%
I. After 2018                   8     22%
J. Unforeseeable               15     42%
===============================================================

4) BOJ says that the year-on-year rate of change in the core
CPI (excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hikes)
is likely to reach around 2 percent toward the latter half of
the projection period through fiscal 2015. 
Do you think the BOJ’s projection will be realized?  
===============================================================
2% Inflation                  Yes      No
---------------------------------------------------------------
Reach target                    4      32
===============================================================

5) If no, please state if you think the BOJ will have to alter
the 2% price stability target with a time-frame of 2 years.
===============================================================
BOJ will alter:             Response count:
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2 years                             24
B. 2%                                   0
C. both 2 years and 2%                  4
D. neither 2 years nor 2%               4
===============================================================

6. Do you expect Japan’s government to compile a stimulus package
to support  the economy in the fiscal year starting April? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                36    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yes                            28     78%
No                              8     22%
===============================================================

7. How big will the package be?
===============================================================
Response Count:                28    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. 1-3 trillion yen            11     39%
B. 3-5 trillion yen             9     32%
C. 5-8 trillion yen             5     18%
D. 8-10 trillion yen            1      4%
E. more than 10 trillion yen    0      0%
===============================================================

To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Isaac Aquino in Tokyo at iaquino1@bloomberg.net; James Mayger in Tokyo at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net James Mayger

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