Brazil’s Rousseff Would Win Race in First Round, Datafolha Shows

Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff would win re-election in a first round of balloting in October, defeating opposition Senator Aecio Neves and Pernambuco state Governor Eduardo Campos with 47 percent of intended votes, a Datafolha poll said.

Neves, an ally of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, or PSDB, would get 17 percent of votes, the pollster linked to Folha de S.Paulo said in a survey published on the newspaper’s website. Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party, or PSB, would get 12 percent. There would be no runoff because Rousseff’s votes would exceed the sum of those for the other two candidates, the Feb. 19-20 survey of 2,614 people in 161 cities showed.

Rousseff’s government, facing above-target inflation in an election year, is pledging to trim spending as part of a plan to reduce public debt and slow the pace of consumer price increases. In the months before her re-election campaign officially begins, Rousseff has made meeting the central bank’s 4.5 percent inflation target a central piece of her speeches on the economy.

Analysts increased their forecasts for 2014 inflation to 5.93 percent from 5.89 percent, according to a weekly central bank survey of about 100 economists published Feb. 17.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday the government may raise taxes this year to meet fiscal targets, while it plans to cut 44 billion reais ($18.7 billion) in spending from the 2014 budget.

Datafolha’s poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent. Grupo Folha is the parent of Folha newspaper and Datafolha.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Edgerton in Brasilia at aedgerton@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Helder Marinho at hmarinho@bloomberg.net

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