Yellen Testifies, U.S. Retail Sales, BOE: Week Ahead Feb. 8-15

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will give her first semi-annual report on U.S. monetary policy and the economy as head of the central bank in testimony before Congress.

U.S. data may show industrial production increased in January, while colder-than-normal weather limited retail sales last month. Germany will release inflation and gross domestic product figures.

The Bank of England will publish its quarterly economic outlook, with new forecasts for growth and inflation, and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Brussels.

Barclays Plc (BARC), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Nissan Motor Co. (7201), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), American International Group Inc. (AIG), ThyssenKrupp AG and Total SA (FP) report earnings.

Syria talks take place in Geneva, while Iran celebrates the 35th anniversary of the Islamic Republic.

The Winter Olympics get under way in Sochi, Russia.

SATURDAY, FEB. 8

-The Assiom Forex banking conference organized by Italy’s financial-markets association convenes in Rome. Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco will make a speech to attendees including many of the country’s top finance executives. The event starts at 08:00 CET (02:00 EST).

-The National Cotton Council releases its 2014 outlook for plantings in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Prices jumped 13 percent in 2013, the first gain in three years. 09:00 in Washington.

-Australian by-election. A special election will be held in the district of Griffith in the state of Queensland, which was previously held by former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Current Prime Minister Tony Abbott is seeking to increase his lower-house majority. Polls open 08:00-18:00 local time (starts 2/7 16:00 EST).

-The Kingsman sugar conference starts in Dubai, running until Feb. 11. Sugar traders will discuss the outlook for the commodity after prices tumbled 49 percent in the past three years and global production exceeded demand for a fourth year.

-Ireland hosts Wales in rugby’s Six Nations tournament at 14:30 Dublin time (09:30 EST). England plays Scotland in Edinburgh at 17:00 (12:00 EST).

-The Winter Olympics schedule in Sochi, Russia, includes the men’s 5,000-meter speed-skating event. Sven Kramer of the Netherlands will be attempting to retain the title he won at Vancouver in 2010. 15:30 local time (06:30 EST).

SUNDAY, FEB. 9

-Swiss immigration referendum. Switzerland holds a referendum on whether to introduce an upper limit for newcomers. Support for the measure has increased, according to the most recent poll. While rejection still looks possible, high turnout among immigration opponents could tip the scales, pollster gfs.bern said. Voting ends at 12:00 CET (06:00 EST), with final results from about 16:30 CET (10:30 EST).

-Tokyo election for governor. The race pits former Japanese Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, who is pledging to use the leverage of running the country’s biggest city to push for a permanent end to nuclear power, against Yoichi Masuzoe, a former health minister who favors restarting the country’s nuclear plants. Voting runs from 07:00-20:00 local time (2/8 17:00-2/9 06:00). Results to be announced on Feb. 10.

-France plays Italy in Paris in rugby’s Six Nations tournament. 15:00 CET (09:00 EST).

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the men’s downhill skiing competition. Norway’s Aksel Lund Svindal, winner of the World Cup downhill crown last year, is among the favorites. Bode Miller of the U.S., a bronze medalist in the 2010 Olympic downhill, is also in the field. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST).

MONDAY, FEB. 10

-U.S. debt ceiling. If Congress and President Barack Obama fail to extend or raise the debt limit by Feb. 7, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew says his department will use extraordinary measures to continue to pay the government’s bills until late February. President Obama signed legislation in October to suspend the limit through the first week of February and end a 16-day partial government shutdown.

-Obama-Hollande meeting. President Barack Obama hosts French President Francois Hollande for two days, beginning with a trip to Monticello, the Virginia home of Thomas Jefferson, who was ambassador to France before he became U.S. president. On Feb. 11, Obama and Hollande will discuss topics including U.S.-French business ties, the proposed U.S.-EU free-trade agreement and the war in Syria. Hollande also plans to meet with U.S. business leaders during his trip through Feb. 12.

-The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s technology advisory panel meets to review swap-data reporting standards. 10:00 in Washington.

-The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly estimates for supply and demand of major domestic and global crops. 12:00 EST in Washington.

-Japan reports its current account for December, after it widened to a record in November as the weaker yen drove up energy prices and contributed to the trade deficit. 08:50 in Tokyo (2/9 18:50 EST).

-China will report new yuan loans for January, as well as M2 money supply. The data may be released any day between Feb. 10 and Feb. 15.

-Syrian peace talks. Members of President Bashar al-Assad’s government and rebels are scheduled to resume talks in Geneva.

-The Malaysian Palm Oil Board issues monthly data for production, inventories and exports from the world’s second-biggest supplier of the commodity used in everything from food to biofuel. 13:30 in Kuala Lumpur (00:30 EST).

-ECONOMY: Taiwan trade (Jan.), Turkey industrial production (Dec.), Egypt consumer-price inflation (Jan.), Swiss unemployment (SZUE) (Jan.), Greek industrial production (Dec.), Greek inflation (GKCPNEWY) (Jan.), Italian industrial production (Dec.), French industrial (FPIPMOM) production (Dec.).

-EARNINGS: Sohu.com Inc. (SOHU), Nissan Motor Co., L’Oreal SA. (OR)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the women’s super combined event, which comprises downhill and slalom skiing. Maria Hoefl-Riesch of Germany will be attempting to retain her title. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST).

TUESDAY, FEB. 11

-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy, speaking for the first time before Congress since being sworn in on Feb. 3. Her appearance follows the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision in January to taper the Fed’s monthly bond buying to $65 billion. Yellen won confirmation in January as Fed chief in a Senate vote of 56-26, the least support from the chamber for a central bank chairman on record. 10:00 in Washington.

-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, will speak at the Economic Club of Chicago at 12:30 (13:30 EST), part of a fundraising trip for the governors’ association. Christie’s approval ratings have slumped amid probes into his office’s ties to politically motivated traffic jams at the George Washington Bridge.

-U.S. bond auctions. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $30 billion of three-year notes today, $24 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Feb. 13.

-Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum. In Boca Raton, Florida. Through Feb. 12.

-U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook. 12:00 EST in Washington.

-Canada budget. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty presents his budget for the 2014-15 fiscal year, which starts April 1. Flaherty said in November his budget would show the deficit shrinking to $5 billion before swinging to a surplus in the year starting April 2015. About 16:00 EST in Ottawa.

-Brazil soybean and corn forecasts. The government will post the first revision to its crop outlook after high temperatures and low rainfall boosted prices for the two commodities. Brazil is the world’s top soybean exporter. 09:00 in Brasilia (06:00 EST).

-Iran celebrates the 35th anniversary of the formation of the Islamic Republic. State-sponsored rallies will be organized in Tehran and a speech by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is likely.

-The Bank of Portugal releases data on Portuguese banks, including European Central Bank financing. Time to be determined.

-Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s corruption trial starts in Naples. Berlusconi, a billionaire, was indicted on charges of bribing a senator to help topple Romano Prodi’s government in 2008.

-ECONOMY: U.S. JOLTs job openings (Dec.), U.S. wholesale inventories (Dec.), Mexico industrial production (Dec.), South Africa unemployment (fourth quarter), South Africa manufacturing production (Dec.).

-EARNINGS: Sprint Corp. (S), CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS), Barclays Plc, Metro AG.

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes women’s ski jumping for the first time. The field includes world champion Sarah Hendrickson, 19, of the U.S. and 17-year-old junior champion Sara Takanashi of Japan. 21:30 local time (12:30 EST).

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 12

-The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s market oversight division will review the agency’s Dodd-Frank Act mandate to have swaps traded on swap-execution facilities to increase competition and transparency. The CFTC division will discuss how to regulate packaged trades including two or more parts. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association wants to exempt packaged trades. 09:00 in Washington.

-Bank of England inflation report. Policy makers publish their quarterly economic outlook, with new forecasts for growth and inflation. Officials are in the process of reviewing their forward-guidance policy after the fastest growth since 2007 last year sent unemployment plunging to within a whisker of the 7 percent threshold at which officials pledged to consider raising interest rates. Governor Mark Carney presents the report at a press conference in London. 10:30 (05:30 EST).

-European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver the keynote address in Brussels at an event organized by the ECB and the National Bank of Belgium. 16:30 CET (10:30 EST).

-Mexican central bank’s quarterly inflation report. Banco de Mexico will publish its quarterly inflation report and new economic projections after its Jan. 31 monetary policy meeting. Bank Governor Agustin Carstens will discuss the report at a news conference. 09:00 in Mexico City (10:00 EST).

-New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio presents his preliminary budget for fiscal 2015, starting July 1, for the nation’s most populous city. De Blasio, a first-term mayor who was inaugurated on Jan. 1, may say how much he plans to spend to settle about 150 open union contracts covering almost all the city’s workers. Residents also will learn how much his signature pre-kindergarten and after-school programs will cost.

-Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano and Spanish King Juan Carlos are scheduled to speak at a conference organized by business group COTEC Portugal. Daniel Calleja Crespo, director-general at the European Commission’s Enterprise and Industry directorate, is also scheduled to attend. 10:00 local time (05:00 EST).

-The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries publishes its monthly oil market report. 12:00 in London (07:00 EST).

-China reports trade data for January after rising imports and exports in December showed strength in the domestic economy, and the government claimed the title of the world’s biggest trader of goods. Time to be decided.

-China releases preliminary commodity imports data for January, including shipments of iron ore, copper, aluminum and agricultural products. 10:00 in Beijing (2/11 21:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. monthly budget statement (Jan.), Malaysia GDP (MAGDHIY) (fourth quarter), Korea Unemployment (Jan.), Japan machinery orders (Dec.), South Africa retail sales (Dec.), Swiss consumer price index (Jan.), Portugal consumer prices (Jan.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Iceland rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Cisco Systems Inc., MetLife Inc. (MET), Deere & Co. (DE), CBS Corp. (CBS), Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM), Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. (2502), Sapporo Holdings Ltd. (2501), SoftBank Corp. (9984), Telenor ASA (TEL), Total SA, Societe Generale SA (GLE), ING Groep (INGA), Heineken NV (HEIA), Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc. (RB/)

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the women’s downhill. In the absence of the injured 2010 champion Lindsey Vonn, Elisabeth Goergl of Austria and Slovenia’s Tina Maze are among the contenders. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST).

THURSDAY, FEB. 13

-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testifies to the Senate Banking Committee after appearing before a House panel on Feb. 11. 10:30 in Washington.

-U.S. retail sales probably rose in January at the slowest pace in four months, according to a Bloomberg survey, as colder-than-normal weather limited shopping. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-ECB Monthly Bulletin. The European Central Bank will release its monthly bulletin in Frankfurt. 10:00 CET (04:00 EST).

-German Inflation. (GRCP20YY) The Federal Statistics Office publishes its final inflation number for January. Prices rose 1.2 percent in the month, according to the Statistics Office’s preliminary estimate from Jan. 30. 08:00 CET (02:00 EST).

-Argentina’s new price index. The government will debut its overhauled consumer-price index one year after becoming the first nation censured by the International Monetary Fund for reporting inaccurate economic data. The government’s official inflation was 10.9 percent in 2013 compared with private estimates of 28 percent. The index is likely to report higher inflation, which would benefit investors in inflation-linked bonds. 16:00 in Buenos Aires. (14:00 EST).

-The anti-European Union U.K. Independence Party challenges the opposition Labour Party in a House of Commons by-election in the Manchester suburb of Wythenshawe. The result is scheduled for the early hours of Feb. 14.

-South African President Jacob Zuma delivers the State of the Nation address in parliament in Cape Town. 19:00 local time (12:00 EST).

-Australian employment data for January will be released after employers unexpectedly cut workers in December, capping the worst year of full-time losses since 1992. 11:30 in Sydney (2/12 19:30 EST).

-Indonesia’s central bank will set its benchmark interest rate after keeping borrowing costs unchanged last month for a second-straight meeting as inflation held steady and imports fell. Time to be confirmed.

-The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy committee will meet to decide on its key interest rate after keeping it unchanged at 2.5% for an eighth-straight month in January. Economists expect no change again as the BOK projects the economy will grow 3.8% in 2014 and 4% next year amid stable inflation. 10:00 in Seoul (2/12 20:00 EST).

-Norges Bank GovernorOeystein Olsen gives his annual speech on monetary policy and the economy. 18:00 CET (02/13 12:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. consumer comfort index (weekly), U.S. business inventories (Dec.), Brazil retail sales (Dec.), Turkey current account balance (Dec.), South Africa mining production (Dec.), Greek Unemployment (Nov.), Dutch consumer price index (Jan.), Dutch retail sales (Dec.).

CENTRAL BANKS: Peru rate decision, Swedish rate decision.

-EARNINGS: American International Group Inc., PepsiCo Inc., Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Banco do Brasil SA, BM&FBovespa SA, Kirin Holdings Co. (2503), Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (ST), Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (MPEL), Commerzbank AG, Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), Eni SpA (ENI), Nestle SA (NESN), KBC Groep (KBC), Rio Tinto Plc (RIO), ABB Ltd. (ABBN), Zurich Insurance Group AG (ZURN), Shire Plc (SHP), Electricite de France SA, Pernod Ricard SA (RI), BNP Paribas SA (BNP), Renault SA (RNO), Publicis Groupe SA. (PUB)

-Major League Baseball. Spring training opens with voluntary reporting for pitchers, catchers and injured players. Opening day for the Major League Baseball season is March 31.

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the women’s 1,000-meter speed-skating event, where Canada’s Christine Nesbitt will attempt to retain her title. 18:00 local time (09:00 EST). Host nation Russia plays Slovenia in men’s hockey, while the U.S. meets Slovakia. 16:30 local time (07:30 EST).

FRIDAY, FEB. 14

-U.S. industrial production increased in January as frigid temperatures across the U.S. boosted power demand, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve reports at 09:15 in Washington.

-Consumer sentiment in the U.S. probably eased for a second month in February as Americans became unnerved by declines in stock prices, according a Bloomberg survey. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary figures are released at 09:55 in Washington.

-Obama-Abdullah meeting. President Barack Obama meets with King Abdullah of Jordan to discuss topics including the war in Syria, refugee flows into Jordan, and Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. In Rancho Mirage, California. Time to be announced.

-German GDP. (GRGDPPGQ) The German Statistics Office publishes its preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. Economic growth in Europe’s biggest economy probably slowed to about a quarter of 1 percent in the three months through December, the Statistics Office estimated on Jan. 15. 08:00 CET (02:00 EST).

-China will report consumer prices and producer prices for January after CPI climbed 2.5% in December from a year earlier, the smallest rise in seven months. 09:30 in Beijing (2/13 20:30 EST).

-China will report foreign direct investment for January any day between Feb. 14 and Feb. 18.

-ANA Holdings Inc.’s midterm plan. Japan’s largest airline will provide an update on its expansion plans and earnings forecasts for the period ending 2016 in a briefing headed by Chief Executive Officer Shinichiro Ito. 15:00 in Tokyo (01:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: Italian gross domestic product (fourth quarter), French non-farm payrolls (fourth quarter), French gross domestic product (fourth quarter), Dutch gross domestic product (fourth quarter).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Mexico policy meeting minutes.

-EARNINGS: DBS Group Holdings Ltd. (DBS), Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC), United Overseas Bank Ltd. (UOB), Rakuten Inc. (4755), Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd. (2587), ThyssenKrupp AG, Anglo American Plc. (AAL)

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES:: Angola (S&P), Armenia (Fitch), Croatia (Fitch), Ghana (Moody’s), Italy (Moody’s), Kuwait (S&P), Latvia (Moody’s), Mozambique (S&P), Poland (Fitch), Seychelles (Fitch), U.K. (DBRS).

-The Winter Olympics schedule includes the men’s super combined skiing event. Ted Ligety of the U.S., the 2013 world champion, and Ivica Kostelic of Croatia are among the competitors. 11:00 local time (02:00 EST).

SATURDAY, FEB. 15

-Obamacare enrollment deadline. Uninsured Americans who want coverage effective March 1 must sign up by today. About 3 million Americans have so far enrolled in private plans under the U.S. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The administration said last month it would increase its outreach efforts in 25 cities to enroll more Americans under age 35, who so far have comprised about 30 percent of sign-ups.

-The Winter Olympics men’s hockey schedule includes host nation Russia playing the U.S. The Americans defeated the Soviet Union at the 1980 Olympics in what became known as the “Miracle on Ice.” It was the last year the U.S. won the gold medal, by defeating Finland. 16:30 local time (07:30 EST).

Note to our readers: Click on blue ECONOMY headline at bottom of each day for access to Bloomberg’s complete global economic calendar.

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Keat Kian Koh in Singapore at kkoh@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at adavidson@bloomberg.net

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