U.S. Jobs, Debt Ceiling, Yellen, Olympics: Week Ahead Feb. 1-8

U.S. employers probably added more than twice as many workers to payrolls in January than the prior month while the jobless rate held at a five-year low of 6.7 percent, data in the coming week may show.

The U.S. debt-limit deadline looms with Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew urging Congress to act by Feb. 7.

Janet Yellen becomes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s chairman. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England make decisions on interest rates.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speak at the Munich Security Conference, with Ukraine’s government and opposition leaders scheduled to attend.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS), General Motors Co. (GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and UBS AG (UBSN), and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) report earnings.

The Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, amid security concerns.

SATURDAY, FEB. 1

-Janet Yellen becomes the first female chairman in the Federal Reserve’s 100-year history, with an official swearing-in ceremony on Monday, Feb. 3. Yellen voted in January with the majority of Fed policy makers to taper the central bank’s monthly bond purchases. One of her challenges is to scale back the Fed’s economic-stimulus program without triggering a rise in bond yields or pushing down inflation, which is below its 2 percent target. In Washington.

-The Munich Security Conference starts its second day, bringing together heads of state, national leaders and foreign and defense ministers. Among the speakers are U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Ukraine’s government and opposition leaders are also scheduled to attend. The conference starts at 09:00 CET (03:00 EST), concluding Feb. 2 at 13:15 CET (07:15 EST).

-China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) may fall in January as an economic slowdown deepens, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg. The index slipped to a four-month low in December, underscoring challenges for President Xi Jinping as he tries to sustain economic momentum while rolling out changes. 09:00 Beijing time (1/31 20:00 EST).

-Thai protests. Suthep Thaugsuban, organizer of protests aiming to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, will lead a march from the Bangkok suburb of Lad Prao to the central Rama IX intersection to rally support for his plan to block tomorrow’s election. Those districts have seen some of the most violent clashes of the protest movement’s three-month campaign. 10:00 in Bangkok (1/31 22:00 EST).

-Rugby’s Six Nations tournament starts. Wales, seeking a third-straight title, hosts Italy in Cardiff at 14:30 local time (09:30 EST). France plays England in Paris at 17:00 CET (11:00 EST).

SUNDAY, FEB. 2

-U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to be interviewed by Bill O’Reilly of the Fox News Channel during the Super Bowl pre-game show. Topics may include the president’s State of the Union address, NSA surveillance and health-care law. About 16:30 in Washington.

-El Salvador presidential election. Voters are divided between Vice President Salvador Sanchez Ceren and San Salvador Mayor Norman Quijano, with Tony Saca, a former president, in third. The campaigns are focusing on GDP growth and crime in a country with one of the highest homicide rates. If no one wins 50% of the vote, there will be a March 9 runoff. Polls close at 17:00 (18:00 EST).

-Costa Rica presidential election. Former San Jose mayor and ruling party candidate Johnny Araya leads 12 other contenders with the debate centered on a budget deficit that widened more than fourfold to an average 4.4% of GDP from 2009-2013. A candidate needs 40% support to avoid an April 6 runoff. Polls close at 18:00 (19:00 EST).

-Thai elections. The country holds an early election three months after the start of protests aiming to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and end the influence of her brother and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Anti-government demonstrators are seeking to replace the government with an unelected council of “good people” and plan to hold protests in an attempt to disrupt the election that could delay the release of the results. Polls close at 15:00 (03:00 EST).

-Super Bowl XLVIII. The Seattle Seahawks (15-3) play the Denver Broncos (15-3) to determine the champion of the National Football League. 18:25, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

-Ireland hosts Scotland in rugby’s Six Nations tournament at 15:00 local time, Dublin. (10:00 EST)

MONDAY, FEB. 3

-U.S. manufacturing probably grew at a slower pace in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, indicating uneven progress at the start of the year. The Institute for Supply Management reports at 10:00 in Washington.

-The U.S. debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew will speak to the Bipartisan Policy Center about the need for Congress to extend the nation’s borrowing authority by Feb. 7. In a Jan. 22 letter, Lew urged lawmakers to raise the limit to “provide certainty and stability” to the economy and financial markets. 09:00 in Washington.

-U.S. Senate Banking panel hearing on credit-card breaches. The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on International Trade and Finance holds a hearing on credit-card data breaches at U.S retailers. Witnesses include Mallory Duncan, general counsel of the National Retail Federation. 15:00 in Washington.

-Africa. The Outlook, The Opportunity conference with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in Johannesburg. Speakers include President Jacob Zuma, Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. The event runs from 07:30 local time (00:30 EST). Note: Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

-India holds an auction of spectrum for wireless-phone services from which it’s seeking to raise 400 billion rupees ($6.4 billion). Bharti Aircel Ltd. (BHARTI), Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCOM) and Vodafone Group Plc (VOD)’s local unit are among operators planning to take part in the auction starting at 09:00 in New Delhi. (2/2 22:30 EST)

-Perth Mint, which refines most of the bullion from Australia, the world’s second-biggest gold producer, issues sales data for gold and silver coins and bars in January. 09:30 in Perth (2/3 20:30 EST).

-Port Hedland, the world’s biggest iron-ore export terminal, publishes data on shipments to China and other destinations in January. 09:30 in Perth (2/3 20:30 EST).

-Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma and Lithuanian Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevicius meet in Tallinn, Estonia, to discuss topics including a joint rail project. Press conference at 14:25 (07:25 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. vehicle sales (Jan.), China non-manufacturing PMI (Jan.), South African purchasing managers’ index (Jan.), Turkey consumer prices (Jan.), Euro-area final manufacturing PMIs (Jan.), U.K. Hometrack housing survey (Jan.), U.K. manufacturing PMI (Jan.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Mauritius rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER), Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS), Ryanair Holdings Plc. (RYA)

TUESDAY, FEB. 4

-The Congressional Budget Office releases its annual economic outlook for the U.S. The agency’s most recent projections in May forecast that the budget deficit would shrink to $642 billion by the end of the fiscal year. 10:00 in Washington.

-U.S. Senate Judiciary hearing on credit-card breaches. The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on credit-card data breaches at U.S. retailers. Witnesses include John J. Mulligan, chief financial officer of Target Corp., and Edith Ramirez, chairman of the Federal Trade Commission. 10:15 in Washington.

-Hearing on JPMorgan-Madoff trustee settlement. Trustee Irving Picard’s $543 million accord with JPMorgan Chase & Co. will be argued before a federal court judge. Picard intends to add the money to funds for repaying victims of Bernard L. Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. The trustee announced the settlement Jan. 7. Picard says the settlement is fair and in the best interest of customers. Lawyers said 193 Madoff “net winners” who withdrew more money than they invested are opting out of the settlement. 10:00, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Manhattan.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Berlin for talks likely to focus on Syria’s civil war and Turkey’s relations with the European Union. Merkel and Erdogan will hold a joint press conference at 13:15 CET (07:15 EST) in Berlin.

-Mexico’s telecom overhaul. The nation’s Congress starts talks on rules aimed at reducing the dominance of telecommunications companies such as billionaire Carlos Slim’s America Movil SAB and Grupo Televisa SAB. Under the new regulations, telecom companies would face tougher scrutiny and enforcement measures. Times to be determined.

-The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 2.5 percent, all 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict, as a weaker currency promotes exports. 14:30 in Sydney. (2/3 22:30 EST)

-The operators of North Sea oil fields release cargo-loading schedules for March. 08:00 in London (03:00 EST).

-Platts’s quarterly Biofuels Forum takes place in Geneva. The European biofuels market, changing global flows and the Platts pricing window will be discussed. 12:00 in Geneva (06:00 EST).

-C40 Cities Mayors Summit in Johannesburg. The speakers, including former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, will discuss urban sustainability and efforts to tackle climate change. Through Feb. 6. Note: Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

-Swiss Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf visits her Greek counterpart, Yannis Stournaras, in Athens. Timing to be confirmed.

-Romania’s central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 3.5 percent from 3.75 percent, according to seven of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Timing to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. factory orders (Dec.), Brazil industrial production (Dec.), Hong Kong retail sales (Dec.), South Korea consumer prices (Jan.), South Korea HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan.), Italy inflation (Jan.).

EARNINGS: Aflac Inc. (AFL), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB4), Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Toyota Motor Corp., Sharp Corp. (6753), Panasonic Corp. (6752), Hitachi Ltd. (6501), UBS AG, Royal KPN NV (KPN), BP Plc (BP/), Munich Re.

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 5

-Twitter Inc.’s earnings debut. Analysts estimate the microblogging site will post a net loss on $217 million in sales after it added features for advertisers to reach more than 230 million users. Twitter’s shares had surged more than 130% as of Jan. 29 since its initial offering in November, the largest IPO of a technology company since Facebook Inc.’s debut in 2012. After 13:00 in San Francisco (16:00 EST).

-U.S. service industries probably expanded at a faster pace in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, after unexpectedly growing at a slower rate in December. Services account for about 90 percent of the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management reports at 10:00 in Washington.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly oil supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-Poland’s central bank will leave its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 2.5 percent, according to all 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Time to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. ADP employment change (Jan.), Indonesia GDP (IDGDPY) (fourth quarter), Euro-area final services PMIs (Jan.), U.K. services PMI (PMITSUK) (Jan.).

-EARNINGS: Walt Disney Co., Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU), Time Warner Inc. (TWX), Merck & Co. (MRK), Allstate Corp. (ALL), Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (7211), Mazda Motor Corp. (7261), GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK), Kabel Deutschland Holding AG.

THURSDAY, FEB. 6

-European Central Bank interest-rate decision. The Governing Council will decide whether recent volatility in financial markets warrants a policy response. The median forecast is for unchanged borrowing costs. 13:45 CET (07:45 EST). A press conference follows at 14:30 CET (08:30 EST).

-Bank of England rate decision. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee will leave its key rate at a record low 0.5 percent and its bond-purchase program target at 375 billion pounds ($617 billion), according to Bloomberg surveys. 12:00 in London (07:00 EST)

-The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in December after reaching a four-year low the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The figures may show the economy is gradually getting a bigger boost from trade as the U.S. produces more energy domestically and as overseas markets stabilize. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Illinois $1 billion bond sale. The lowest-rated U.S. state is preparing its biggest municipal-debt sale since state lawmakers in December approved measures to bolster pension systems, intended to save $145 billion over 30 years. Illinois has the weakest pension-funding ratio among all 50 U.S. states and pays the highest interest rate relative to AAA municipal bonds among the 17 states tracked by Bloomberg.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural-gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations publishes its food-price index. World food prices probably fell in January as grains, oilseeds and sugar costs declined. 09:00 in London (04:00 EST).

-Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata speaks in Miyazaki, western Japan. 10:30 local time (2/5 20:30 EST). The speech will be followed by a press conference.

-The Philippine central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.5 percent, six of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast. 16:00 in Manila (03:00 EST).

-DefExpo India. Executives including Hakan Buskhe, CEO of Saab AB, Christian Scherer, head of strategy at the defense unit of Airbus Group NV, and Pratyush Kumar, president of Boeing India, are among the attendees. Through Feb. 9 in New Delhi.

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Challenger job cuts (Jan.), Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Taiwan inflation (TWCPIYOY) (Jan.), German factory orders (Dec.), Swiss trade balance (Dec.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Czech Republic rate decision.

-EARNINGS: General Motors Co., News Corp. (NWS), LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD), Zynga Inc., Kellogg Co. (K), Cemex SAB de CV, Sony Corp. (6758), Suzuki Motor Corp. (7269), Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA), Vodafone Group Plc (third-quarter sales), Credit Suisse Group AG, Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA), Daimler AG, AstraZeneca Plc (AZN), Sanofi (SAN), Alcatel-Lucent SA. (ALU)

-Jay Leno hosts “The Tonight Show” on NBC for the last time before Jimmy Fallon takes over the role on Feb. 17. The show has been the most-watched, late-night comedy program in the U.S. for much of the more than 20 years that Leno was host. 11:30 EST.

FRIDAY, FEB. 7

-U.S. debt-limit deadline. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew is urging Congress to raise the nation’s debt ceiling by today and “certainly” before late February. If lawmakers fail to increase or suspend the debt ceiling, the Treasury must resort to so-called extraordinary measures to sell debt so that the government can continue to pay its bills. The Treasury estimates the measures would enable the government to stay within the debt limit until late February. President Barack Obama earlier signed legislation to suspend the limit through Feb. 7 and end a 16-day partial government shutdown. Republican House Speaker John Boehner said Jan. 16 that “all I know is that we should not default on our debt” and “shouldn’t even get close to it.”

-U.S. jobs report. Employers probably added more than twice as many workers to payrolls in January than the prior month, while the jobless rate held at a five-year low of 6.7 percent, according to a survey of economists. A pickup in hiring, combined with faster wage gains and more hours, may enable American workers to boost spending. It would also signal that companies are more confident about the economy. The Labor Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch speaks on reviving growth in the euro area. 10:45 in Dublin (05:45 EST).

-ECB Governing Council member George Provopoulos speaks on the Greek financial crisis. 11:00 in London (06:00 EST).

-Brazil’s annual inflation rate may have fallen to a 14-month low in January after the central bank raised borrowing costs by 3.25 percentage points to 10.5 percent since April. Policy makers meeting Feb. 25-26 will examine today’s report to evaluate the need for rate increases. 09:00 in Rio de Janeiro (6:00 EST).

-India’s Central Statistical Organization (INGDPY) will release its first GDP growth estimate for the year ending March 31, a figure closely watched ahead of elections due by May. 17:30 in New Delhi (07:00 EST).

-India’s Auto Expo 2014 - The Motor Show. Honda Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Takanobu Ito and Jim Farley, Ford Motor Co.’s executive vice president of global marketing, are among speakers. Feb. 7-11 in New Delhi.

-ECONOMY: U.S. consumer credit (Dec.), Mexico inflation (Jan.), China HSBC Services PMI (EC11SERP) (Jan.), German exports (Dec.), German industrial production (Dec.), France trade balance (Dec.), Spain industrial output (Dec.), U.K. industrial production (Dec.), U.K. NIESR GDP estimate (Jan.), U.K. trade balance (Dec.), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (Jan.), Swiss retail sales (Dec.)

-EARNINGS: Olympus Corp. (7733), Statoil ASA (STL), ArcelorMittal. (MT)

-SOVEREIGN RATINGS UPDATES: Bulgaria (Moody’s), Finland (Moody’s), Iceland (Fitch), Nigeria (Moody’s), Poland (S&P).

-The Winter Olympics start in Sochi, Russia, running through Feb. 23. Concerns linger over security after two suicide bombings killed more than 30 people in December in Volgograd, less than 700 kilometers (434 miles) from Sochi. The opening ceremony begins at 20:00 local time (11:00 EST).

SATURDAY, FEB. 8

-The National Cotton Council releases its 2014 outlook for cotton plantings in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter. Prices jumped 13 percent in 2013, the first gain in three years. 09:00 in Washington.

-Ireland hosts Wales in Dublin in rugby’s Six Nations tournament at 14:30 local time (09:30 EST). England plays Scotland in Edinburgh at 17:00 local time (12:00 EST).

Note to our readers: Click on blue ECONOMY headline at bottom of each day for access to Bloomberg’s complete global economic calendar.

-Editors: Nancy Moran, Andy Davidson

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Keat Kian Koh in Singapore at kkoh@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at adavidson@bloomberg.net

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