Mexico’s Peso Declines as Fed Concern Overshadows Export Outlook

The peso fell to a four-month low as the International Monetary Fund boosted global growth forecasts, fueling speculation U.S. policy makers will quickly pare a stimulus program that has fueled demand for Mexican assets.

The peso depreciated 0.5 percent to 13.3060 per U.S. dollar at 9:46 a.m. in Mexico City, the weakest level on a closing basis since Sept. 5. Yields on peso bonds due in 2024 rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 6.47 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price fell 0.40 centavo to 127.42 centavos per peso.

While the peso has historically benefited from a better growth outlook for the U.S., improvement in the Latin American country’s chief export market is adding to concern that the Federal Reserve will reduce monthly bond purchases. The IMF reported today that U.S. gross domestic product will expand 2.8 percent this year, compared with October’s 2.6 percent outlook.

“There may be some more determination to reduce stimulus,” Eduardo Rodriguez, a trader at Casa de Bolsa Finamex SAB, said in a telephone interview from Guadalajara, Mexico. “In the very short term, the only thing that you’re seeing is the return of interest rates.”

The U.S. central bank will pare its $75 billion in monthly purchases in $10 billion increments over the next six meetings before announcing an end to the program no later than December, according to the median forecasts of economists in a Bloomberg survey this month.

In Mexico, the central bank said today that international reserves fell by $59 million in the week ended Jan. 17, dropping to $176.5 billion.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Bain in Mexico City at bbain2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brendan Walsh at bwalsh8@bloomberg.net

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