Oil Price Forecasts Cut by Deutsche Bank on U.S. Supply

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) reduced its price forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude this year as “rampant” increases in crude supply from U.S. shale resources will help create a glut of oil.

The German bank cut its 2014 forecast for Brent to $97.50 a barrel, from $106.25, and its estimate for WTI to $88.75 a barrel, from $98.75, according to an e-mailed report today. A recovery in Iranian oil exports, should sanctions be resolved, is a “non-negligible” risk for this year, the bank said.

“A third year of rampant U.S. oil supply growth propelled by tight/shale oil development combined with the potential for the normalization of Iranian oil exports is increasingly painting a picture of an oversupplied global oil balance,” Soozhana Choi, a markets research strategist for the bank in Washington, wrote in the report. Such a balance “poses meaningful downward pressure on oil prices,” she wrote.

U.S. crude supply is set to rise by 1 million barrels a day, the same rate of increase as in the previous two years, Deutsche Bank said. This change is leading the nation, which is the world’s largest oil consumer, closer to self-sufficiency.

Brent crude futures traded for $106.71 a barrel in London at 11:23 a.m. today and the equivalent February WTI contract in New York at $91.90.

The possibility that the U.S. may repeal or reform its ban on crude oil exports bears monitoring this year because it could dramatically alter world prices, Choi said.

OPEC may face difficult decisions as soon as its June 2014 meeting should supply from Iran, Libya or Iraq require production cutbacks from other members, the bank said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rupert Rowling in London at rrowling@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

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