(Corrects to remove reference to British Columbia and Canada’s Atlantic provinces being excluded from the estimate.)
Canadian farmers this year will harvest the most wheat ever and produce a record canola crop, according to a government survey.
All-wheat production will probably expand to 37.5 million metric tons, up from September’s forecast of 33.0 million tons, Statistics Canada said today from Ottawa. Wheat production is forecast to rise 38 percent from 27.2 million tons in 2012 and exceed the record harvest of 32.1 million tons in 1990. The average production estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 33.98 million tons.
The canola harvest in Canada, the world’s largest grower, may climb 29.5 percent to 18.0 million tons, up from September’s forecast of 16.0 million tons and surpassing the record output of 14.6 million tons in 2011, according to the report. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast 16.78 million tons.
Statistics Canada said it interviewed about 33,400 farmers from Oct. 26 to Nov. 13.
“People were pleasantly surprised,” Chuck Penner, the owner of LeftField Commodity Research, said in a telephone interview from Winnipeg before the report. “People thought it was a good year, but it was a really good year” for production, he said.
Today’s government forecast may not fully show the size of the crop as farmers are conservative in their estimates, Penner said. There’s still concern that there won’t be enough rail capacity to move the record crop, signaling that there’s grain that needs to be accounted for, he said.
While planting in many parts of Western Canada was delayed this spring by excess moisture and below-normal temperatures, farmers seeded most of their crop by mid-June, according to reports from Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Harvests this year across the Prairie provinces of Canada may rise 14 percent to 80.8 million tons amid higher average yields, the government’s Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada said Nov. 21.
Wheat, Canada’s biggest crop, fell 14 percent this year through yesterday to $6.6825 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
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