The Week That Was: Dow Bulls and Philly Falls

Photographer: Mimi Ritzen Crawford

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Photographer: Mimi Ritzen Crawford

Succinct Summations, week ending Nov. 22, 2013.

Positives:

1. The Dow & S&P 500 rose for a 7th consecutive week, closing at all-time highs.
2. About 450 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks are up this year -- the broadest rally in 20+ years.
3. Fed officials expect tapering “in coming months” -- suggesting economic improvement.
4. Weekly jobless claims drop to lowest level in 2 months.
5. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index readings for October were benign as energy prices continue to fall. Core CPI rose 0.1 percent.
6. U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index comes in at 54.2 versus 52.4 expected.
7. Retail sales ex-autos and gasoline rose 0.5 percent last month, versus a 0.3 percent advance in September.
8. Since 1991 the S&P 500 has gained 20 percent or more in a year 7 times, every instance saw a higher market 1 year later.
9. Japan’s October exports rose 18.6 percent year-over-year.
10. American Association of Individual Investors bullish sentiment declines to the lowest-level since late August, positive contrarian signal.

Negatives:

1. Existing home sales fell 3.2 percent month-over-month, the second straight monthly decline.
2. U.S. consumer prices fell last month 0.1 percent; with inflation running at its lowest rate in 4 years, deflation is a possibility.
3. Philly Fed index plummets to 6.5 in November, down from 19.8 in October.
4. Fed officials expect tapering “in coming months” -- removing an enormous source of liquidity for risk assets like stocks.
5. AII bearish sentiment is near historic lows, a negative contrarian signal.
6. Mortgage rates rise to 5 week high; refi applications fall 6.5 percent to two month lows as we have the third straight weekly decline. (Purchase applications to buy a home rose did rise 5.8 percent.)
7. China’s private sector weighted HSBC manufacturing index fell 0.5 pt in November to 50.4; Still above above 50 but just barely.

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