Romania’s economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, probably spurred by a bumper harvest and export growth.
Gross domestic product increased 4.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with 1.5 percent in the second quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by the National Statistics Institute in Bucharest today by e-mail. The median forecast of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 3.5 percent expansion. GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 1.6 percent from the previous three months.
“Favorable weather conditions this year resulted in a good agricultural output, very likely above multi-annual averages for most crops,” analysts at Raiffeisen Bank Romania SA, including Ionut Dumitru, wrote in an e-mail before the GDP release. “We foresee the gross value added in agriculture to increase 23 percent in 2013 and to have a positive contribution of 1.4 percentage points to the GDP growth rate this year.”
Last month the government, in agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, increased Romania’s 2013 economic-growth forecast to 2.2 percent from a previous estimate of 1.9 percent, citing a good harvest and a pickup in exports.
The leu rose 0.2 percent to 4.4560 against the euro at 10:02 a.m. in Bucharest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Industrial production increased a seasonally adjusted 7.1 percent from a year earlier in September, the institute said on Nov. 8. The country’s trade deficit shrank to 413 million euros ($556 million) in September, as exports grew faster than imports, the institute said on Nov. 11. Retail sales decreased 0.8 percent in September, it said on Nov 4.
The statistics institute will release a breakdown of third-quarter GDP on Dec. 4, according to a calendar on its website.
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