Palm oil output in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, climbed to the highest level in more than year in October, exceeding analysts’ expectations and boosting stockpiles to a six-month high.
Production gained 3.1 percent to 1.97 million metric tons from a month earlier, the highest since September 2012, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said today. Inventories rose 3.5 percent to 1.85 million tons, the largest since April, while exports gained 3.3 percent to 1.66 million tons. That compares with the median estimates of 1.87 million tons for output, 1.84 million tons for reserves and 1.6 million tons for exports in a Bloomberg survey published last week.
Futures, heading for the first annual gain in three years, entered a bull market this month on speculation that output from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia may be less than analysts expectation and the start of the monsoon season may curb supply. Production of the tropical oil, used in everything from candy to biofuel, is typically highest from July to October because of growing cycles.
“October is the highest production month of the year and we are not going to see that anymore for the rest of the year,” said Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst with Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd., by phone from Kuala Lumpur. “Inventory should rise in November because we do not expect much stocking activity due to lack of festivals in China and India.”
Output may drop 6.5 percent in November to 1.84 million tons, while exports are seen falling to 1.5 million tons, boosting reserves to 1.91 million tons, Lim said.
Shipments from Malaysia fell 13 percent to 472,321 tons in the first 10 days of November from the same period last month, surveyor Intertek said today.
Palm for January delivery advanced as much as 1.5 percent to 2,546 ringgit ($794) a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives before the report. Prices rose to 2,628 ringgit on Nov. 1, the highest close since September 2012 and 21 percent more than the 2,167 settlement on July 29, meeting the common definition of a bull market.
Prices have reached 2013 cyclical bottom and gains will last through January, Hariyanto Wijaya, an analyst at Mandiri Sekuritas, a unit of Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s biggest bank by assets, said in a report today.
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