Mexico Central Bank Cuts 2013 Growth Forecast as Exports Stall

Mexican policy makers cut their growth forecast for this year in half after stagnant exports and a flagging construction industry led them to reduce interest rates by the most since the 2009 recession.

Gross domestic product will expand 0.9 percent to 1.4 percent this year compared with the 2 percent to 3 percent previously forecast, the central bank said in its quarterly inflation report published today. In 2014, the economy will grow 3 percent to 4 percent, down from the 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent previously estimated. The bank raised its inflation estimate for next year to 3.5 percent from near 3 percent after Congress passed new levies on junk food and sugary drinks.

A drop in public spending and the devastation from twin hurricanes in September have slowed industrial output and domestic demand more than expected by economists, who now say GDP will grow by a third the rate of 2012. Central bank Governor Agustin Carstens has cut the overnight rate three times this year by a total of 1 percentage point to a record low.

Analysts polled by Banxico forecast 2013 growth of 1.24 percent after a 3.9 percent expansion last year as industrial production contracted 0.6 percent in the second quarter and retail sales shrank unexpectedly in two of the past three months. Industrial output continued to fall in July and August, dropping 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent respectively, and the government estimates growth slowed to 1 percent in the third quarter from 1.5 percent in the previous three months.

Economists also lowered their 2014 growth estimate in Banxico’s Nov. 1 survey to 3.41 percent from 3.59 percent.

Rate Outlook

Carstens said in an Oct. 30 interview that the central bank shouldn’t cut the key interest rate any lower than the current 3.5 percent as the tax increases give a temporary boost to inflation.

Inflation has slowed in each of the past five months to 3.39 percent in September. The rate dropped to 3.33 percent in October, according to the median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The national statistics agency will publish the October results tomorrow.

Mexico’s Congress passed a new 8 percent tax on junk food and a 1 peso-per-liter duty on sugary drinks and raised sales taxes at the border to 16 percent from 11 percent. The same day, Congress passed a 1.5 percent deficit as part of the revenue portion of next year’s budget.

“The revenue law approved in the Senate will have a relatively small and temporary impact on inflation,” Carstens told reporters yesterday.

Banco de Mexico reduced the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on Oct. 24 and Sept. 6 and by a half point in March. Previous to that, the bank hadn’t touched rates since slashing them 3.75 percentage points in 2009.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nacha Cattan in Mexico City at ncattan@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in Mexico City at emartin21@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at asoliani@bloomberg.net

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