India’s Rupee Declines Before Federal Reserve Policy Decision

India’s rupee fell the most in more than a week with investors favoring the dollar as the Federal Reserve meets to review its stimulus that has supported emerging-market inflows.

The U.S. monetary authority will maintain its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases until March, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists, as data yesterday showed U.S. consumer confidence fell and an Oct. 22 report revealed jobs growth slowed in September. India’s central bank yesterday raised its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 7.50 percent.

“Given that the delay in tapering by the Fed has been largely priced in, risk assets will likely be bound in a relatively tight trading range” before the results of the Fed meeting are known, Credit Agricole CIB analysts including Hong Kong-based Anthony Lam wrote in a research report today. In India, “given the recent rebound in inflation pressure and yet tepid growth, the bar to adjust policy rates in either direction will be high in the coming months.”

The rupee fell 0.3 percent to 61.5225 per dollar as of 10:19 a.m. in Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 10.18 percent. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts, rose for the fourth day.

The Reserve Bank of India said wholesale-price inflation may stay higher than current levels through most of the rest of the year, with consumer inflation probably around or above 9 percent. The WPI gauge rose 6.46 percent in September, official data show. The central bank also cut its projection for economic growth in the 12 months that began April 1 to 5 percent from 5.5 percent.

Three-month onshore rupee forwards fell 0.2 percent to 62.86 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Offshore non-deliverable contracts dropped 0.2 percent to 62.95. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanette Rodrigues in Mumbai at jrodrigues26@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net

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