Emerging markets beyond Brazil, India, Russia and China offer the “last frontier” for vehicle-sales growth through 2020, Boston Consulting Group said in a report.
“Brazil, Russia, India and China have generated substantial growth opportunities in the last decade and will certainly be vitally important over the coming decade,” according to the report released today in Troy, Michigan. “But we believe that concentrating on BRIC markets alone will be insufficient to ensure longer-term success.”
Sales in these so-called Beyond BRIC emerging markets will make up one-fifth of the world’s sales through 2020 and will rise faster than deliveries in the U.S., Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, according to the study.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), General Motors Co. (GM) and Volkswagen AG (VOW) are competing to be the world’s largest automaker by vehicle sales. GM and VW receive a major part of their deliveries from China. Ford Motor Co. (F) is playing catch-up in China and seeks to capture 5 percent of the market during the fourth quarter, up from 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Parts of Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and northern Africa offer “growth opportunity in a world in which established markets are largely characterized by stagnation or low growth and the key stakes have already been distributed in the BRIC markets,” Boston Consulting said in a separate statement.
The southeast Asia countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are forecast to have new vehicle sales of 4.6 million by 2020, larger than Russia, the report said.
Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, may have 5.8 million sales in 2020, larger than 5.2 million forecast for Brazil, according to Boston Consulting. Latin American countries, including Argentina, Chile and Colombia, may be 2.9 million, compared with the 3.6-million German market.
“These regional clusters should be on the growth list of every OEM and supplier with ambitions to be a truly global player,” Thomas Dauner, a senior partner of the consulting firm and co-author of the report, said in the statement.
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