The value of exports may total A$203.76 billion ($191.3 billion) in the year started July 1, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said in a report today. That compares with A$197 billion forecast in June and A$177.4 billion a year earlier, it said.
“Growth in export revenue will be driven by two main factors,” Bruce Wilson, the bureau’s executive director, said in a foreword to the report. “Substantial growth in bulk commodity export volumes, particularly for LNG and iron ore, and a lower Australian dollar exchange rate.”
Iron ore entered a bull market in July as users in China replenished stockpiles and data suggested growth in the world’s biggest buyer may be picking after slowing for two quarters. Morgan Stanley said in September that prices will be supported through the first half of 2014 as a global surplus only emerges later in the year.
Export earnings from mineral commodities may peak in the year beginning July 1, 2014, with energy commodity exports driving growth, the bureau said in its report. Earnings are forecast to grow as volumes rise substantially even as commodity prices decline, the bureau said.
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