Bank of Japan October Long-Term Forecasts

Twenty-six of 36 economists expect the BOJ to add to easing in the first six months of next year, according to a Bloomberg News survey carried out between Sept. 26 and Oct. 1. Increasing purchases of Japanese government bonds, exchange-traded funds and Japanese real-estate investment trusts are seen as a next step by many of the economists in the survey.

===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Masayuki Kichikawa        Jan.-March       Risk assets, excess        mid 2016
BofA Merrill Lynch              2014         reserve rate cut,
                                          aggressive purchases
                                            of short-term JGBs
Kyohei Morita             April-June         JGBs, risk assets            2017
Barclays Bank PLC               2014                                  or later
Ryutaro Kono              After July             JGB purchases             N/A
BNP Paribas                     2014
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Marcel Thieliant          Jan.-March        JGBs, risk assets,         2016 at
Capital Economics               2014            extend current    the earliest
                                              purchase program
Kiichi Murashima          April-June              Risk assets,            2017
Citigroup Inc                   2014            extend current        or later
                                              purchase program
Kazuhiko Ogata            April-June            Fund-supplying            2018
Credit Agricole                 2014       operations, cutting        or later
                                           rates for operation
Hiromichi Shirakawa       Jan.-March        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Credit Suisse                   2014            extend current        or later
                                              purchase program
Hideo Kumano               No easing                       N/A             N/A
Dai-Ichi Life         
Mitsumaru Kumagai         April-June         JGBs, risk assets          FY2016
Daiwa Institute                 2014                                  or later
Maiko Noguchi             April-June               Risk assets             N/A
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Daiwa Securities                2014
Naohiko Baba              April-June               Risk assets             N/A
Goldman Sachs                   2014
Izumi Devalier            April-June        JGBs, risk assets,     After March
HSBC Holdings PLC               2014           long-dated JGBs            2016
Yoshimasa Maruyama        April-June       Risk assets, extend            2016
Itochu Corporation              2014    current purchase prog.
Takuji Okubo              Jan.-March            Extend current            2018
Japan Macro Advisors            2014          purchase program
Hideki Matsumura           No easing                       N/A     Around 2016
Japan Research Inst.  
Masaaki Kanno             April-June               Risk assets            2018
JPMorgan Chase & Co.            2014
Yuichi Kodama             Jan.-March        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Meiji Yasuda Life               2014       change deadline for        or later
                                           2% inflation target
Naomi Muguruma            Jan.-March        JGBs, risk assets,          FY2016
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Mitsubishi UFJ MS Sec.          2014       extend loan program        or later
Yuji Shimanaka             Oct.-Dec.   Expand asset purchases,       2H FY2015
Mitsubishi UFJ MS            2013 or            fund-supplying
Securities BCR            April-June                operations
                                2014
Shinichiro Kobayashi      Jan.-March         JGBs, risk assets            2016
Mitsubishi UFJ                  2014                                  or later
Research & Consulting 
Hajime Takata             Jan.-March        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Mizuho Research                 2014            extend current        or later
                                              purchase program
Yasunari Ueno             After July              Risk assets,             N/A
Mizuho Securities               2014            extend current
                                              purchase program
Naoki Murakami            After July        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Monex Inc.                      2014            extend current        or later
                                              purchase program
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Takeshi Yamaguchi         After July        JGBs, risk assets,          FY2016
Morgan Stanley MUFG             2014            extend current        or later
                                             purchase program,
                                              forward guidance
Yasuhide Yajima           Jan.-March         JGBs, risk assets            2016
NLI Research Institute          2014                                  or later
Naka Matsuzawa            After July              Risk assets,      April-June
Nomura Securities               2014            extend current            2016
                                              purchase program
Takeshi Minami            After July        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Norinchukin Research            2014       excess reserve rate        or later
                                           cut, extend current
                                              purchase program
Makoto Suzuki             April-June        JGBs, risk assets,      April-June
Okasan Securities               2014          forward guidance   2016 or later
Junko Nishioka            April-June            Extend current        mid 2015
RBS Securities                  2014          purchase program
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
Akio Makabe               April-June        JGBs, risk assets,            2016
Shinshu University              2014            extend current        or later
                                             purchase program,
                                                fund-supplying
                                                    operations
Mari Iwashita             Jan.-March               Risk assets          FY2017
SMBC Nikko Securities           2014                                  or later
Takuji Aida               April-June        JGBs, risk assets,            2017
Societe Generale                2014            extend current
                                              purchase program
Hiroaki Muto              April-June        JGBs, risk assets,     Around Oct.
Sumitomo Mitsui                 2014            extend current            2018
Asset Management                              purchase program
Izuru Kato                April-June         JGBs, risk assets             N/A
The Totan Research              2014
Kazuhiko Sano             After July        JGBs, risk assets,             N/A
Tokai Tokyo Securities          2014            extend current
===============================================================================
Economist                       Next               Easing Type       Timing of
and Firm                    Stimulus                                 QQME Exit
===============================================================================
                                              purchase program
Daiju Aoki                April-June        JGBs, risk assets,            2017
UBS Securities                  2014            extend current
                                              purchase program
===============================================================================

NOTE 1: 2H = 2nd half of the year NOTE 2: 2Q = 2nd quarter of the year NOTE 3: FY = Fiscal year in Japan starts in April and ends in March

To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Isaac Aquino in Tokyo at iaquino1@bloomberg.net; Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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