Aluminum Outlook ‘Vulnerable’ in Long Term: Technical Analysis

Aluminum’s long-term outlook is “vulnerable” as prices extend a drop toward $1,758 a metric ton that marks the low set in June, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.

While the support area consisting of that price and the October 2009 low of $1,776 will “hold the initial test,” the bank says longer-term targets include the June 2009 high of $1,701 and then $1,605. That’s the 78.6 percent retracement of the rally from 2009 to 2011, one of the levels singled out in Fibonacci analysis.

“We continue to view aluminum as vulnerable on the downside longer term” while prices remain below the $1,939 to $1,981 area, Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank in London, said in a report two days ago. “Rallies are expected to remain tepid.”

Aluminum for delivery in three months traded at $1,807 a ton by 6:11 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange, bringing the drop this year to 13 percent. The surplus will be 1.04 million tons this year and 781,000 tons in 2014, Barclays Plc estimated.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after a high or low.

To contact the reporter for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

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