Bank of Japan September Long-Term Forecasts

22 of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a large and negative impact on financial markets should the government postpone its plans of raising the sales tax from April next year.

===============================================================================
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Negative Impact
===============================================================================
Masayuki Kichikawa     Jan.-March             N/A     2H 2015       Not so much
BofA Merrill Lynch           2014
Ryutaro Kono           April-June            JGBs         N/A     Significantly
BNP Paribas                  2014                                         large
Marcel Thieliant       Jan.-March   monetary base        2016             Large
Capital Economics            2014   target (340tn    or later
                                     yen by 2015)
Kiichi Murashima       Jan.-March      ETFs, risk        2017     Significantly
Citigroup Inc                2014          assets    or later             large
Kazuhiko Ogata         April-June  Fund-supplying         N/A             Large
Credit Agricole              2014     operations,         N/A
===============================================================================
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Negative Impact
===============================================================================
                                    interest rate
                                     cut to 0.05%
Hiromichi Shirakawa    April-June      long-dated     1Q 2016             Large
Credit Suisse                2014            JGBs    or later
Hideo Kumano            July 2014             N/A         N/A     Significantly
Dai-Ichi Life            or later                                         large
Mitsumaru Kumagai      April-June      ETFs, risk      FY2016     Significantly
Daiwa Institute              2014          assets    or later             large
Maiko Noguchi          April-June            ETFs         N/A             Large
Daiwa Securities             2014
Naohiko Baba          Spring 2014      ETFs, risk         N/A             Large
Goldman Sachs            or later          assets
Izumi Devalier          Oct.-Dec.  ETFs, J-REITs,        2015             Large
HSBC Holdings PLC            2013      long-dated    or later
                                             JGBs
Yoshimasa Maruyama     April-June             N/A        2016       Not so much
Itochu Corporation           2014
===============================================================================
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Negative Impact
===============================================================================
Hideki Matsumura       after July            ETFs        2015         Almost no
Japan Research Inst.         2014                                        impact
Masaaki Kanno          April-June            ETFs   2017~2018       Not so much
JPMorgan Chase & Co.         2014                    or later
Yuichi Kodama          Jan.-March      JGBs, ETFs        2016       Not so much
Meiji Yasuda Life            2014                    or later
Jun Ishii              Jan.-March             N/A      FY2016     Significantly
Mitsubishi UFJ MS Sec.       2014                    or later             large
Yuji Shimanaka          no easing             N/A   2H FY2015       Not so much
Mits. UFJ MS Sec. BCR 
Hajime Takata          Jan.-March   ETFs, J-REITs         N/A             Large
Mizuho Research              2014
Yasunari Ueno          after July            ETFs         N/A     Significantly
Mizuho Securities            2014                                         large
Yasuhide Yajima        Jan.-March            JGBs      FY2016             Large
NLI Research Institute       2014
Naka Matsuzawa         after July            ETFs  Jan.-March             Large
===============================================================================
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Negative Impact
===============================================================================
Nomura Securities            2014                        2016
Takeshi Minami         after July  ETFs, J-REITs,        2016       Not so much
Norinchukin Research         2014    risk assets,    or later
                                   excess reserve
                                   rate cut to 0%
Makoto Suzuki          April-June           asset     2Q 2016             Large
Okasan Securities            2014       purchases    or later
Junko Nishioka         April-June            ETFs        2015             Large
RBS Securities               2014                    or later
Akio Makabe            April-June  Fund-supplying        2016     Significantly
Shinshu University           2014     operations,    or later             large
                                    ETFs, J-REITs
Mari Iwashita          after July             N/A      FY2017     Significantly
SMBC Nikko Securities        2014                    or later             large
Takuji Aida            April-June             N/A        2017       Not so much
Societe Generale             2014
Izuru Kato             Jan.-March             N/A         N/A     Significantly
===============================================================================
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Negative Impact
===============================================================================
The Totan Research           2014                                         large
Kazuhiko Sano          after July      long-dated         N/A             Large
Tokai Tokyo Securities       2014            JGBs
Daiju Aoki             April-June      JGB, ETFs,        2017     Significantly
UBS Securities               2014         J-REITs    or later             large
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economist                    Next     Easing Type   Timing of  Tax Hike Delay’s
and Firm                 Stimulus                   QQME Exit   Positive Impact
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Takuji Okubo           Jan.-March   ETFs, J-REITs        2018     Significantly
Japan Macro Advisors         2014                                         large
Naoki Murakami         after July             N/A     2H 2015             Large
Monex Inc.                   2014                    or later
===============================================================================

NOTE 1: 2H = 2nd half of the year NOTE 2: 2Q = 2nd quarter of the year NOTE 3: FY = Fiscal year in Japan starts in April and ends in March

To contact the reporters on this story: Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net; Isaac Aquino in Tokyo at iaquino1@bloomberg.net; Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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