Western Europe will be wetter than usual in September, ending Germany’s driest spell in 10 years, according to weather forecasters.
Rainfall in the U.K. will be above normal levels, according to Reading, England-based MetraWeather and MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Germany will get more precipitation than usual in the third week of the month, according to Deutscher Wetterdienst, the national weather service based in Offenbach near Frankfurt, while Meteogroup Deutschland GmbH predicts above-average rain in France next week.
“A variable pattern, which will be heavily influenced by ridging over the North Atlantic and western Russia, will lead to wetter than normal conditions in the U.K. and Scandinavia,” Bradley Harvey, operational meteorologist at MDA, said Aug. 28 in an e-mail. “Germany is also expected to be slightly wetter than normal, as are the Balkans.”
The three months through August were the driest in 10 years in Germany, Europe’s biggest energy market, amid higher-than-usual temperatures that boosted demand for air conditioning and supported prices. Above-normal rainfall may boost hydro reservoir levels from a two-year low in the Nordic region, which gets about half its power output from water.
Temperatures in western Europe should be normal to higher than average this month, according to Deutscher Wetterdienst, Metra and WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts. Germany’s average temperature for September is 13.3 degrees Celsius (56 degrees Fahrenheit), based on the 1961-1990 reference period, Deutscher Wetterdienst said.
“Current signs are for a warmer start of the autumn for all of Germany,” Kai Biermann, a Hamburg-based forecaster and head of sales at Deutscher Wetterdienst, said in an e-mailed report Aug. 30.
In Germany, 190 liters (50.1 gallons) of rain fell per square meter in the three months through August, the least in a decade and compared with a long-term average of 239 liters, Deutscher Wetterdienst said in an Aug. 29 statement. The average summer temperature was 17.8 degrees, 1.5 degrees more than in the reference period, according to the forecaster.
Temperatures in southern Sweden and Norway are expected to be cooler than normal this month while the rest of the Nordic region will be warmer than usual, WSI said Aug. 21.
Hydro levels are currently 75.7 percent full in the Nordic region, the lowest for the period in at least two years, Nord Pool Spot data show. In the Alpine region, Swiss hydro reserves were 75.6 percent full in the week to Aug. 26, according to the Swiss Federal Energy Office. That compares with an average for the week of 84.5 percent, according to data going back to 1997.
Nordic next-quarter power, a regional benchmark, rose for a second month in August on Nasdaq OMX Group’s energy exchange in Oslo. German next-month electricity gained a third month and climbed 4.8 percent to 39.55 euros a megawatt-hour as of 2:17 p.m. Berlin time today, the highest price since Feb. 28, broker data show.
The share of French power generated from hydroelectric plants dropped last month to 13 percent from 17 percent in July and 20 percent in June, according to data from French grid operator Reseau de Transport d’Electricite SA compiled by Bloomberg Industries.
Next month will be warmer than usual across Europe, except in the extreme north of the U.K., while November will be colder than normal in most of Britain and the Nordic region, according to WSI.
“October will be the warmest of the autumn months, relative to normal,” WSI said. “A very early look at indicators for the upcoming winter suggest that atmospheric blocking may be favored again this winter, which would favor below-normal temperatures across significant parts of Europe.”
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