India’s Nifty Futures Rise, Signaling Indexes to Snap 6-Day Loss

Indian stock-index futures gained, signaling the nation’s benchmark indexes may rally after a six-day losing streak.

SGX CNX Nifty Index futures for August delivery rose 0.3 percent to 5,792.5 at 10:32 a.m. in Singapore. The underlying CNX Nifty (NIFTY) Index fell 0.2 percent to 5,742 yesterday. The S&P BSE Sensex fell less than 0.1 percent, capping a second consecutive monthly decline. The Bank of New York Mellon India ADR Index of U.S.-traded shares rose 0.1 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained after the U.S. Federal Reserve said yesterday it will maintain its bond-buying program. The Sensex has slumped in the past six days after the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks’ access to cash on July 23 to stabilize a weakening currency and left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a policy meeting this week. The rupee reached a record low on July 8 amid concern reduced Fed stimulus will make it harder for India to fund its current-account deficit.

“Since the markets have been falling for the last few sessions after the tightening by the central bank, it’s likely the fall will get arrested now that the RBI policy is out,” Sanjay Sinha, founder of Mumbai-based Citrus Advisors, said by phone. “However, this is not reflecting the true picture because the strong performance by consumer, IT and some pharmaceutical stocks have masked the fact that a large number of interest-rate sensitive stocks have seen heavy falling.”

Goldman Downgrade

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its rating on Indian (SENSEX) stocks to underweight in a report dated July 31, citing a delayed recovery in growth and “rising vulnerability” of the nation’s economy. Goldman recommended investors buy “export-facing” stocks that stand to benefit from better external growth and a weaker rupee, and sell interest-rate sensitive shares.

“The investment case for India has turned less favorable,” Goldman analysts led by Sunil Koul wrote. “We see increasing risks of a potential ‘flow reversal’ in equities, particularly in ‘crowded’ financials.”

Overseas investors sold a net $2.8 billion of Indian stocks in the two months through July 30, the biggest outflow since the financial crisis in November 2008, according to data from the market regulator compiled by Bloomberg. That has pared this year’s net investment to $12.3 billion, still the second-highest inflow in Asia after Japan, data show.

The RBI cut its economic growth forecast this week for the year to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent for the year ending March 2014.

Earnings Estimates

Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCOM) may announce today profit of 1.49 billion rupees ($24.7 million) for the three months ended June 30, according to 18 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Bank of Baroda (BOB) may report quarterly net income of 10.8 billion rupees, according to the median estimate of 41 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Five of the 15 Sensex members that have posted earnings so far for the June quarter missed analyst estimates. About 27 percent of companies in the measure missed forecasts for the three months ended March, and 43 percent in the December quarter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Sensex has lost 0.4 percent this year and trades at 13.6 times projected 12-month earnings, down from a 17-month high of 14.3 times on July 23. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trades at 10 times.

To contact the reporter on this story: Santanu Chakraborty in Mumbai at schakrabor11@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Patterson at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net

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