Breaking News

Putin, Poroshenko Agree on Cease-Fire in Ukraine
Tweet TWEET

Insight and Action

Keep It Simple, Stupid: Who Will Benefit From Increased Spending?

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Insight & Action," Adam Johnson looks at the U.S. economy on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

(This Insight & Action was originally broadcast on June 28, 2013)

Strategas Research has built a successful business around simplifying reams of data. One of their monthly reports tallies the latest economic data and survey results to determine a "balance sheet" for the U.S. economy -- a quantitative estimate of pros and cons.

Their innovative approach to analyzing U.S. macro trends hit my inbox this morning and has a decidedly positive tone. It underscores Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's suggestion that the economy may not require excessive bond buying much longer. The Strategas team identifies five positive trends, three neutral factors and, surprisingly, no negatives.

Yet note two items most especially. First, capital expenditures by corporations have recently moved to the positive side of the ledger, having increased during each of the past three months. Additionally, housing prices have finally begun rising in earnest. The 12 percent gain for the Case-Shiller Index is the largest since March 2006. Since business spending and personal consumption together account for about three quarters of GDP, according to Citi Strategist Tobias Levkovich, these developments may be significant.

Also note the tally of positive/neutral to negative factors is 8 to 0 for the second month in a row, the most positive ratio since before the crisis.

One final observation: Stocks of the 97 companies in the S&P 500 selling exclusively within the U.S. are outperforming the broader index.

Press spacebar to pause and continue. Press esc to stop.

Bloomberg reserves the right to remove comments but is under no obligation to do so, or to explain individual moderation decisions.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.