Gold may gain next year and in 2015 as central banks boost holdings and investors look to diversify assets amid global uncertainty, said Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
Bullion may reach $1,300 an ounce by year-end, gaining to $1,400 next year and $1,500 in 2015, analysts led by chief economist Warren Hogan said in an e-mailed report today. While there remains further downside for prices in the near-term, the current selloff is approaching an end, they said.
The call contrasts with forecasts for declines from other banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said prices will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014. Credit Suisse Group AG predicts $1,150 in about 12 months and Danske Bank A/S sees $1,000 in three months. Bullion slumped 23 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products tumbled after the Federal Reserve said in June it may reduce asset purchases.
“We expect the pace of liquidation of gold positions to abate or even reverse over the year ahead,” the report said. “Emerging market central banks will remain accumulators of gold over the medium to long term.”
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETP backed by gold, extended a decline to 939.07 metric tons yesterday, the lowest since February 2009, data on the trust’s website showed. At the peak in December, assets in gold ETPs were the world’s third-largest hoard when compared with national reserves.
Gold for immediate delivery climbed as much as 3.1 percent to $1,298.73 an ounce today, the highest since June 24, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the world’s biggest economy will continue to need stimulus. The Fed is buying $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage debt each month in the third round of its quantitative-easing stimulus program.
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