(Corrects to say prices rose 0.07 percent in month in second paragraph.)
Mexican consumer prices rose the least in 11 months in April as Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB and UBS AG joined other traders in forecasting the central bank will cut the key interest rate again this year.
Prices climbed 0.07 percent, the national statistics agency said today, lifting annual inflation to 4.65 percent from 4.25 percent in March. The median estimate of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for prices to rise 0.09 percent. Core prices, which exclude energy and agriculture costs, rose 0.08 percent, compared with the 0.10 percent forecast by 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The central bank forecasts that annual inflation will slow back to within the 2 percent to 4 percent target range in the second half of the year. The bank’s Governor Agustin Carstens said yesterday lax monetary policies in developed nations and slowing inflation will weigh on future rate decisions.
Policy makers cut the key rate for the first time in almost four years in March, reducing it by half a point to 4 percent, before leaving it unchanged on April 26.
Yields on six-month swaps tied to the interbank rate fell 0.07 percentage point to a record low 4.14 percent at 8:20 a.m. in Mexico City, extending their drop since the day of the rate cut to 0.24 percentage point. The swaps indicate that traders are pricing in about an 80 percent chance that policy makers will reduce rates over the next six months.
Banorte expects Banxico to reduce the benchmark rate by half a point to 3.5 percent in July, according to a report e-mailed today. UBS AG said on May 7 that Banxico will cut rates 50 basis points in the second half, predicting 25 basis-point cuts at the bank’s July and September meetings.
Yields on inflation-linked bonds maturing in December 2013 fell three basis points to 1.62 percent. The peso weakened 0.1 percent to 11.9924 per U.S. dollar and has appreciated 7.2 percent this year, the most of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Monetary policy abroad “is a factor, among many, that this board will consider,” Carstens said yesterday at a presentation of the bank’s quarterly inflation report. “It’s a very important phenomenon, but we can’t in any way say that it’s the only factor that intervenes in our decisions.”
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