Export shipments of six vegetable oils and tallow may be 71 million metric tons in the 2012-13 season through to September from 67.5 million tons in the previous season, the Hamburg-based researcher wrote in an e-mailed report today.
World exports of palm oil and palm-kernel oil are predicted to climb to a record, accounting for two thirds of combined exports of the seven analyzed oils and fats, Oil World wrote. Crude palm oil futures have dropped 33 percent in Malaysia in the past 12 months.
“The global dependence on palm oil and palm-kernel oil will continue to rise this season due to insufficient supplies of other oils and fats,” the researcher wrote.
Global palm-oil exports are forecast to climb to 43.6 million tons in 2012-13 from 40.4 million tons in 2011-12, while those of palm-kernel oil may climb to 3.44 million tons from 3.08 million tons.
Soybean oil shipments are expected to rise to 9.85 million tons from 9 million tons, with exports seen accelerating in May as supplies from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay make up for a decline in U.S. sales, Oil World said.
World exports of sunflower-seed oil may slide to 6.46 million tons from 7.28 million tons last season, while rapeseed-oil shipments are predicted to slip to 3.96 million tons from 4.15 million tons in 2011-12, according to Oil World.
“The European Union sharply stepped up imports of sun oil to satisfy interior demand,” the researcher said. “Also China and Iran boosted imports of sun oil so far this season, thus reducing supplies available for the rest of the world.”
Tallow exports are seen falling to 1.61 million tons from 1.69 million tons, falling to the lowest in at least four years on a “substantial decline” of shipments from the U.S., the largest exporter of the animal fat, Oil World said.
“This development has been largely caused by a dramatic increase in domestic tallow consumption in the U.S., where a growing portion of domestic production has been absorbed by the expanding biodiesel industry,” Oil World wrote.
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