The Great Lakes and northern Great Plains regions are expected to remain cooler than normal while seasonal temperatures dominate most of the U.S. through the first week in April, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Temperatures will probably be 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 Celsius) below normal from Alberta through western New York, Rogers, based in Bethesda, Maryland, said in his 11- to 15-day forecast for April 4 through April 8.
An area from southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba to northern Illinois and Iowa may be 5 degrees cooler than usual, Rogers said. The Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains region may be 3 degrees warmer during the period.
“The 11-15 day continues to suffer from more variability, which reduces model skill, but the bulk of the better-performing guidance continues to favor a seasonal cool pattern situation for especially the Midwest and East in the second week of April,” Rogers wrote in a note to clients.
The heating season ends with March. April is the start of a transition to warmer temperatures, when more energy is used to cool rather than heat homes. Extended cold in the large population centers of the Midwest and East helps boost prices for heating fuels. About 50 percent of U.S. households use gas for warmth.
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