U.K.’s Ruling Conservatives May Lose 2015 Election, Poll Shows

Supporters of U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives believe the party’s on course to lose the next election to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, according to a survey carried out by website Conservative Home.

About 7 percent of Conservative supporters surveyed predict Cameron will win a majority in 2015, compared with 23 percent a year ago. The poll comes after the party placed third in a special local election on Feb. 28. Thirty-four percent of those polled predicted the next government will be a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, while 31 percent forecast a Labour majority.

Britain’s economy shrank 0.3 percent in the final quarter of 2012, leaving it on the brink of a triple-dip recession. The opposition Labour Party says the lack of growth is the result of Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s program of spending cuts to narrow the budget deficit. Moody’s Investors Service cut the U.K.’s top credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa last month, citing the weak growth outlook and challenges to fiscal consolidation.

To win a majority in 2015 the Conservatives need to take both Labour and Liberal Democrats seats.

A Conservative minority was predicted by 11 percent of those surveyed, while 8 percent said a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats was the most likely outcome.

Conservative Home is owned by Michael Ashcroft, an upper- house lawmaker and reflects Tory grassroots thinking. The poll of 1,844 supporters was carried out on March 4, the website’s founder Tim Montgomerie wrote in an e-mail today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Charlton in London at echarlton1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dick Schumacher at dschumacher@bloomberg.net

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