U.S. Fourth Quarter Second Gross Domestic Product (Text)

Following is the text release from the GDP report: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER AND ANNUAL 2012 (SECOND ESTIMATE)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today痴 release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month (for more information, see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

Final sales of computers added 0.10 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third- quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.19 percentage point to the fourth- quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from the third- quarter change.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.2 percentage point more than in the advance estimate; this index increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, Compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 13.8 percent, compared with an increase of 8.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Services increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 5.8 percent; it was unchanged in the third quarter. Equipment and software increased 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.6 percent in the third. Real residential fixed investment increased 17.5 percent, compared with an increase of 13.5 percent.

Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 4.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 14.8 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 22.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent.

The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.55 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $12.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $60.3 billion in the third and $41.4 billion in the second.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services Wherever produced -- decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.6 percent in the third. Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation’s output of goods and services -- increased 1.0 percent, or $40.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,851.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.9 percent, or $225.4 billion.

Revisions

The “second” estimate of the fourth-quarter percent change in GDP is 0.2 percentage point, or $9.2 billion, more than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to exports, a downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

2012 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2012 (that is, from the 2011 annual level to the 2012 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in 2011.

The increase in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, upturns in residential fixed investment and in private inventory investment and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and in federal government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in 2012, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in 2011.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $605.8 billion, in 2012 to a level of $15,681.5 billion, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent, or $576.8 billion, in 2011.

During 2012 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012), real GDP increased 1.6 percent. Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2011. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent during 2012, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2011.

Next release -- March 28, 2013 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012 (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012

To contact the reporter on this story: Ainhoa Goyeneche in Washington at agoyenechecu@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Marco Babic at mbabic@bloomberg.net

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