U.K. Natural Gas Falls as Warmer-Than-Average Weather Forecast

U.K. natural gas for same-day delivery declined as forecasters predicted warmer-than-average weather, cutting demand for the heating fuel.

Day-ahead and next-month gas also dropped, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. The average temperature in the U.K. for the rest of today will be 6.1 degrees Celsius (43 Fahrenheit) compared with a seasonal normal of 5.7 degrees and an earlier estimate of 5.8 degrees, the ECMWF weather model supplied to Bloomberg by MetraWeather shows.

Gas for today fell as much as 2.7 percent to 67 pence a therm before trading at 67.5 pence at 9:57 a.m. London time. Month-ahead gas declined 0.7 percent to 66.7 pence a therm. That’s equivalent to $10.33 per million British thermal units and compares with $3.13 per million Btu of front-month U.S. gas.

Demand in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. tomorrow will be 291 million cubic meters, the least since Feb. 4, National Grid Plc data show. The delivery network will contain 382 million cubic meters of gas at the end of the period, up from 348 million at the beginning, grid data show.

Flows from Norway, the U.K.’s biggest source of imported gas, were at 112 million cubic meters a day versus a 10-day average of 104 million, Gassco AS data show.

Gas accounted for 29 percent of U.K. power production at 9:05 a.m., grid data show. Coal generated 45 percent, nuclear 16 percent and wind 2.9 percent.

Wind energy output will peak at 2,781 megawatts today and 852 megawatts tomorrow, according to Bloomberg calculations. It reached a record 5,082 megawatts Feb. 3, grid data show.

Electricity for the next working day fell 0.7 percent to 49.15 pounds a megawatt-hour, broker data show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lars Paulsson at lpaulsson@bloomberg.net

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