Treasury Futures ‘Bearish,’ May Extend Slide: Technical Analysis

Treasury 10-year futures are “bearish” while they stay below a key resistance level and are poised to extend declines, UBS AG (UBSN) said, citing trading patterns.

The contract remains set to fall while trading below the level of 131 18/32, which represents a 38 percent retracement of its decline in January, technical strategist Richard Adcock wrote today in a note to clients, citing Fibonacci analysis. If the future fails to find support at this week’s low of 130 30/32, it may decline to 130 18/32, he wrote.

“A clear resistance has developed in U.S. 10-years,” London-based Adcock wrote in the note. “We are now looking for the next leg of the bearish trend.”

The 10-year future expiring in March rose 5/32 to 131 3/8 at 8:17 a.m. in New York after sliding to 130 30/32 yesterday.

Investors should bet the contract will decline with a target of 130 20/32, with an automatic order to exit the trade if its rises to 132, Adcock wrote.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Resistance refers to an area on a graph where analysts predict sell orders will be clustered. Support is where there may be orders to buy.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Neal Armstrong in London at narmstrong8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net

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