Newcastle prices will rise to $100 a metric ton in 2014 after averaging $95 a ton this year, Serene Lim, an analyst at the bank, said at a conference in Singapore today. The coal benchmark slid to $94.29 a ton in 2012 from more than $120 in 2011, according to data from IHS McCloskey.
“China’s economy will improve as the year progresses,” said Lim, forecasting China’s economic growth will be 8.3 percent this year, up from 7.8 percent in 2012. “We saw last year, Chinese seaborne demand was the key.”
China’s coal consumption may rise as much as 6 percent this year amid investments in infrastructure, Hao Xiangbin, the head of marketing at the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, said at the same conference today.
Coal slid last year as slower economic growth in China and Europe cut demand while supply to Asia from Colombia, the U.S. and other exporters climbed. It was at $91.05 a ton on Jan. 25.
The fuel may average $98 a ton this year and increase to $108 next year, Andrew Shaw, a commodities analyst at Credit Suisse AG, said at the conference. Prices will range from $90 to $95 a ton this year and rise to $105 in 2014, according to Isnaputra Iskandar, the vice president of equity research at PT Nomura Indonesia.
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