Scottish Economy Seen Continuing to Stagnate, Lloyds TSB Says

The Scottish economy is set to continue stagnating in the first half with 49% of companies expecting revenue to be static in the period, according to a report from Lloyds Banking Group Plc. (LLOY)

About 28 percent of the companies surveyed forecast sales will fall while 23 percent predict an increase, the Lloyds TSB Scotland Business Monitor showed. The negative net balance of 5 percentage points compares with a negative balance of 14 percent a year ago, the bank said in an e-mailed statement.

“A return to more vigorous growth in the Scottish economy awaits a further increase in confidence in both consumers and businesses,” Donald MacRae, chief economist for Lloyds TSB Scotland, said in the statement. “However, there are no definite signs of a relapse into deep recession.”

The U.K. economy expanded 0.9 percent in the third-quarter, ending a so-called double-dip recession. Third quarter data for the Scottish economy, due to be published this month, is unlikely to show the same increase, MacRae told the Glasgow- based Herald newspaper in November.

The net balance of companies expecting a rise in export activity over the next three months was 16 percent, compared with a negative balance of 15 percent a year ago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Woodifield in Edinburgh at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Douglas Lytle at

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