Swiss gross domestic product will probably rise 1 percent this year before advancing 1.2 percent in 2013 and 2 percent in 2014, the Zurich-based institute said in an e-mailed statement today, citing a survey of economists. In September, KOF had forecast the economy to expand 0.9 percent this year and 1.3 percent next year.
Switzerland’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, even as the euro area, its biggest export market, fell into its second recession in four years. The Swiss National Bank last week renewed its commitment to a ceiling of 1.20 francs per euro, saying the strong franc continues to weigh on the economy. The SNB sees Swiss GDP advancing between 1 percent and 1.5 percent next year, while the government on Dec. 13 trimmed its growth forecast to 1.3 percent from a previous prediction of 1.4 percent.
“Despite the introduction of the minimum exchange rate, many observers assumed that the effects of the still overvalued franc would manifest in falling exports and rising unemployment,” KOF said in its statement. “This trend has generally failed to materialize.”
KOF raised its forecast for 2012 Swiss export growth to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent previously and lowered its 2013 estimate to 2.3 percent from 2.7 percent. In 2014, foreign sales will expand 4.9 percent, KOF said.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at email@example.com