Irish GDP Seen Rising 0.6% in Third Quarter as Growth Resumes

Ireland’s economy probably returned to growth in the third quarter as exports rebounded and consumer spending strengthened, economists said before a report tomorrow.

Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent in the three months through September from the previous quarter, when it was unchanged, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg News survey conducted by phone today. The economy expanded 0.4 percent from a year earlier, the survey showed.

“The trade numbers should be good and retail sales rebounded,” said Alan McQuaid, an economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin. “You are going to see a better second half than the first half.”

Ireland’s economy will probably expand 1.5 percent next year, according to the survey. That’s in line with the forecast published by the government earlier this month when it introduced additional austerity measures aimed at narrowing the budget deficit. Ireland is seeking to exit its international bailout at the end of 2013 after returning to both short- and long-term debt markets this year.

The Central Statistics Office is scheduled to publish the third-quarter GDP data at 11 a.m. in Dublin tomorrow. The forecasted growth would mark the first expansion since the final three months of 2011, when the economy grew 0.6 percent. Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Dublin-based stockbroker Davy, said that while most indicators suggest expansion, quarterly GDP figures are “exceptionally volatile” and tend be heavily revised.

According to a separate Bloomberg survey published on Dec. 13, Ireland’s economy will probably expand 1 percent next year and 2 percent in 2014.

To contact the reporter on this story: Finbarr Flynn in Dublin at fflynn3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Douglas Lytle at dlytle@bloomberg.net

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