Hungary’s Together 2014 movement, formed to overthrow the ruling Fidesz party at elections in less than a year and a half, will find it hard to build support, Eurasia Group said.
The movement, which includes former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s Patriotism and Progress and three other civic movements, will probably aim to restore constitutional checks and balances, rebuild European ties and conduct a more rational economic policy, Mujtaba Rahman, a New York-based analyst at Eurasia, said in an e-mailed note.
“The return of Gordon Bajnai to the political fray represents one of the most important political developments since Fidesz came to power, and is the first sign post that the incumbent government will face a credible challenger in 2014,” Rahman wrote today. “While the vision is appealing, its realization is going to prove an uphill struggle.”
Premier Viktor Orban, in office since 2010, has used his two-thirds legislative majority to pass a new constitution, narrow the powers of the Constitutional Court and set up a new media regulator led by appointees from the ruling Fidesz party, drawing criticism from the European Union.
Together 2014 said last week that it had agreed with the Socialists, the largest opposition party, to start talks next month on an alliance. Bajnai was prime minister in 2009-2010 with Socialist backing.
While the Socialists’ involvement is “necessary,” it will prove a challenge because of unfavorable public opinion toward their time in government, Rahman said. In addition, Socialist leader Attila Mesterhazy would see himself as candidate for premier in case of an alliance, he wrote.
Fidesz had 19 percent backing in November among eligible voters, compared with 14 percent for the Socialists and 7 percent for Together 2014, according to pollster Tarki’s website. Tarki, which surveyed 1,000 voting-age adults Nov. 14-20, didn’t give a margin of error.
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