Exxon Forecasts 35% Global Energy-Demand Growth by 2040

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the world’s biggest oil producer by market value, raised its long-term global energy-demand growth estimate to 35 percent from 32 percent as expanding populations in Africa and India use more electricity.

Worldwide consumption of fuels to run power plants, trucks, trains and airplanes will climb to the equivalent of 705 quadrillion British thermal units by 2040, compared with 522 quadrillion in 2010, the base year for Exxon’s forecasters, the Irving, Texas-based company said in a report today.

Rising electricity use will be the primary driver of demand growth, accounting for more than half the increase, Exxon said. As the world’s population expands to about 9 billion in 2040, more households and businesses will need power, according to the report.

North America is expected to become a net exporter of oil and fuels derived from crude by around 2030, Exxon said. Worldwide, oil demand will increase by 26 percent though 2040, while natural gas and hydropower use will rise by 65 percent and 66 percent, respectively.

Nuclear power consumption will more than double globally through 2040 and coal use will decline by 2 percent, Exxon said. Demand for renewable energy sources, excluding biomass and waste, will more than quadruple, outpacing growth for all other energy sources, according to the report.

Exxon revises its long-term energy-demand outlook annually to guide long-term investment decisions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tina Davis at tinadavis@bloomberg.net

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