Canada Gas Declines on Warmer Mid-October Weather Forecasts

Canada natural gas prices declined as weather forecasts called for a return to warmer-than-normal temperatures in mid-October, which may reduce demand for gas used in heating.

November gas in Alberta fell 1 percent. Temperatures will be above seasonal averages across much of the central and western U.S. from Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Temperatures in Minneapolis may reach 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 Celsius) on Oct. 16, 12 degrees above normal.

“The weather models were actually much warmer than they were in the morning,” said Aaron Calder, a market analyst with Gelber & Associates Corp. in Houston. “It was a large departure from the forecast that we were looking at over the past week.”

Forecasts had been shifting toward colder weather for October earlier in the week as a cool front blanketed the central U.S. Weather Derivatives of Belton, Missouri, said U.S. average heating demand will be 41 percent above the seasonal average over the next seven days.

Alberta gas for November delivery declined 3 cents, or 1 percent, to C$2.935 per gigajoule ($2.84 per million British thermal units) as of 3:35 p.m. New York time on NGX, a Canadian electronic exchange.

Natural gas for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined 1 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $3.396 per million Btu.

Alberta System

Volume on TransCanada’s Alberta system, which collects the output from most of Canada’s gas wells, was 15.7 billion cubic feet at 4:30 p.m. New York time, 498 million cubic feet below target.

Gas was flowing at a daily rate of 2 billion cubic feet at Empress, Alberta, where the fuel is transferred to TransCanada’s main Line.

At McNeil, Saskatchewan, where gas is transferred to the Northern Border Pipeline for shipment to the Chicago area, the daily flow rate was 2.1 billion cubic feet.

There was 119 million cubic feet of capacity available on TransCanada’s British Columbia system at Kingsgate. The system was forecast to carry 1.55 billion cubic feet today, with estimated capacity of 1.67 billion cubic feet.

The volume on Spectra Energy Corp.’s British Columbia system, which gathers the fuel in northeastern British Columbia for delivery to Vancouver and the Pacific Northwest, totaled 2.85 billion cubic feet at 4:35 p.m.

Spot gas at the Alliance delivery point near Chicago dropped 7 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $3.34 per million Btu on the Intercontinental Exchange. Alliance is an express line that can carry 1.5 billion cubic feet a day from western Canada.

At the Kingsgate point on the border of Idaho and British Columbia, gas declined 6.83 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $3.1555 per million Btu. At Malin, Oregon, where Canadian gas is traded for California markets, prices fell 1.55 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $3.2471.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edward Welsch in Calgary at ewelsch1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net

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