Soybeans Advance on Smaller U.S. Crop Forecast; Corn Declines

Soybeans jumped the most in two weeks after the U.S. said a lingering Midwest drought will cut output more than estimated. Corn fell on signs that the harvest will shrink less than analysts forecast.

Domestic soybean production will drop to 2.634 billion bushels this year, the smallest crop in nine years and down 14 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 2.659 billion. Prices for farmers will average a record $16 a bushel in the year that began Sept. 1, up 29 percent from a year earlier, the USDA said.

“Soybean supplies will be tight this year, and prices will stay elevated to slow demand,” Mark Schultz, the chief analyst for Northstar Commodity Investment Co. in Minneapolis, said in a telephone interview. “We have yet to see any evidence of slowing demand either in the U.S. or from overseas buyers.”

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 1.7 percent to $17.2975 a bushel at 9:34 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, heading for the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Aug. 29 and the first advance since reaching a record $17.89 on Sept. 4.

Demand for U.S. soybeans is forecast to drop 15 percent this year, the USDA said. Export sales, which are already at a record for the start of the marketing season, will fall 22 percent to the lowest in seven years while domestic processing is projected to fall to the lowest since 1997, USDA data show.

Corn Falls

Corn futures for December delivery retreated 1 percent to $7.70 a bushel on the CBOT, heading for the first three-day decline since Aug. 28. Earlier, the price touched a seven-week low at $7.5925. The grain still is up 20 percent this year.

U.S. production will total 10.727 billion bushels, the smallest crop in six years and down 13 percent from 12.358 billion in 2011, the USDA said today. The average prediction of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for 10.420 billion. Supplies of the grain on Aug. 31, 2013, will be greater than analyst estimates.

“The corn crop is a little larger than people expected,” said Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa. “Prices were high enough earlier this year to slow demand,” as livestock producers sought cheaper feed alternatives and began to shrink herds, Roose said.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion, government figures show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

Bloomberg reserves the right to remove comments but is under no obligation to do so, or to explain individual moderation decisions.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.