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What September Polls Say About Election’s Outcome
Over the last 40 years, the shape of most presidential races was evident in the September polls that followed the convention.
A few anomalies, as measured by the Gallup poll: Four years ago, when Senator John McCain of Arizona got a bump that even most Republicans knew wouldn't last. And in 2000, when the Democratic nominee, Vice President Al Gore, again with a convention bump, had a lead (actually, Gore ended up winning the popular vote that year).
The real outlier was 1980, when Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter by seven points in early September and ended up winning by almost 10 points; campaigns can matter.
Here are Gallup's horse-race surveys in September of the last 10 presidential-election years compared with the final results.
Early Sept. poll Final
2008
Barack Obama 46 52.9
John McCain 48 45.7
2004
John Kerry 47 48.3
George W. Bush 49 50.7
2000
Al Gore 47 48.4
George W. Bush 41 47.9
1996
Bill Clinton 52 49.2
Bob Dole 29 40.7
Ross Perot 7 8.4
1992
George H.W. Bush 41 37.5
Bill Clinton 50 43
Perot n/a 18.9
1988
George H.W. Bush 45 53.37
Michael Dukakis 43 45.65
1984
Ronald Reagan 57 58.8
Walter Mondale 39 40.6
1980
Jimmy Carter 41 41
Ronald Reagan 35 50.7
John Anderson 15 6.6
1976
Gerald Ford 36 48
Jimmy Carter 49 50
Eugene McCarthy 4 0.91
1972
George McGovern 34 37.5
Richard Nixon 57 60.7
(Albert R. Hunt is Washington editor at Bloomberg News and a Bloomberg View columnist. Follow him on Twitter.)
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