Polish Zloty Gains After German GDP, Seen Weakening on Low CPI

The zloty strengthened against the euro, breaking two days of losses, after economic growth in Poland’s main trading partner Germany slowed less than economists forecast.

The zloty gained 0.1 percent to 4.0916 per euro at 10:47 a.m. in Warsaw. The currency has weakened 1.2 percent since reaching a one-year high on Aug. 6, the biggest loss among more than 20 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The yield on the 10-year government bond rose 2 basis points to 4.978 percent.

German gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent from the first quarter, when it gained 0.5 percent, the Federal Statistics Office said in Wiesbaden today. Economists had predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Germany is the target for 26 percent of Polish exports.

The zloty could weaken later today if inflation comes in lower than expected when Poland releases July consumer price data at 2 p.m., according to a research note published today by Warsaw-based Pekao SA. Poland’s July inflation rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.3 percent in June, according to the median estimate of 33 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“Slowing inflation is crucial to investors’ expectations for interest rate cuts,” wrote economists at Pekao SA. “If inflation drops more than the market consensus, expect short- term yields to fall and the euro-zloty exchange rate to stabilize above 4.10 per euro. Otherwise, we’ll see the zloty trading at 4.04 to 4.10 and little change in yields.”

Any gain in shorter-maturity bonds could be temporary as rising global food prices should push up Polish inflation in August and September, ING Bank economists Rafal Benecki and Grzegorz Ogonek wrote in a research note today.

The yield on Poland’s two-year government bond due in July 2014 rose 2 basis points to 4.017 percent today.

To contact the reporter on this story Konrad Krasuski in Warsaw at kkrasuski@bloomberg.net

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