Zloty Near Strongest in Year May Weaken on Lower Growth Forecast

The zloty traded near the strongest level in a year, fluctuating between gains and losses, as a technical indicator signaled the rally has gone too far and an adviser to the prime minister said the government may cut its 2013 economic growth forecast.

The zloty weakened as much as 0.2 percent and traded less than 0.1 percent stronger at 9:42 a.m. in Warsaw after reaching the highest level since August 2011 yesterday. It has advanced 1.9 percent this month, the third-biggest gain among more than 20 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The 14-day relative strength index for the zloty rose to 71 yesterday. A reading above 70 indicates the Polish currency may weaken, according to technical analysts. Poland’s government may cut next year’s economic growth forecast to 1.5 percent to 2 percent from 2.9 percent due to the contraction in the euro region, Dariusz Filar, an economic adviser to prime minister, said in an interview yesterday.

“The zloty is probably close to levels where we could see corrective depreciation spurred by profit taking,” Janusz Dancewicz, chief economist at DZ Bank Polska SA, wrote in a note to clients.

The RSI identifies possible turning points in indexes or securities by measuring the degree that gains and losses outpace each other in a given period.

To contact the reporter on this story: Piotr Skolimowski in Warsaw at pskolimowski@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

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