JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) will cut its 2012 China growth forecast if the economy weakens further, Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of global markets for China, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
The trend is for the Chinese economy to moderate through the third quarter, said Ulrich, whose current growth estimate for China is 7.7 percent.
JPMorgan expects China to announce more fiscal policies such as tax cuts in coming weeks, according to Ulrich. The country is also very concerned about housing prices and will maintain tight policies, she said.
Rising housing prices are “actually concerning the central government,” said Ulrich. “They don’t want prices to rebound too sharply. After all, the housing issue is a social issue and not just an economic issue.”
Heavy industries such as steel and cement are “bearing the brunt in the current slowdown,” she said, recommending Chinese retail, service and e-commerce stocks, without naming any.
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