Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa growers, will get rains though Aug. 10 after 10 days of drier weather earlier this month, according to data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Most of the coast of Ivory Coast and Ghana will get 20 millimeters (0.8 inch) to 40 millimeters of rainfall through to Aug. 10, data on the NOAA website today showed. Central and northern Ivory Coast will get 40 millimeters to 75 millimeters, the data showed. In Ghana, rains of 75 millimeters to 125 millimeters are forecast for the western and northern regions.
The Ivorian town of San Pedro, where one of the main cocoa exporting ports is located, had no rainfall from July 11 to 20, with the long-term average at 32 millimeters, according to data from the Ivorian National Meteorological Service. The commercial capital Abidjan got 12.2 millimeters in the period, compared with the long-term average of 36 millimeters. The central- western Daloa region, the biggest growing area, got 37.2 millimeters, more than the long-term average of 33 millimeters.
“The erratic weather of the recent months after a prolonged dry spell has served to provide cuts to next year’s crop forecast,” Drew Geraghty, a broker at ICAP Futures LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, said in a report e-mailed yesterday. “The true test will be as West Africa heads into its next rainy season of August to October.”
Cocoa supply will lag demand by 93,000 metric tons in the 2012-13 season that starts in October, according to Rabobank International. The development of an El Nino, a warming of the water of the Pacific Ocean, also threatens cocoa output. Production fell by an average 2.4 percent in El Nino years, the International Cocoa Organization in London estimates.
Cocoa for December delivery increased 0.1 percent to 1,594 pounds ($2,496) a ton by 2:23 p.m. on NYSE Liffe in London.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at Ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.